Brutal Policewomyn Mama-Kama WILL Send The Bad Orange Man to JAIL

I think Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States. This is not just a knee-jerk reaction to the feel-good vibes after Biden stepped aside. Once it became clear to me that it was decidedly Joeover on July 18, I pegged her chances at 50-60% as opposed to 20-30% for post-debate Biden. Throughout my blogging career, I have always held to the position that the worth of any pundit reduces to their ability to make accurate predictions about the world on the basis that this is what separates purveyors of “alpha” from mere entertainers. And predictions are more meaningful when they involve “skin in the game”. So I made a symbolic $200 Kamala bet on Polymarket on July 24. This is in addition to having 25x that amount “invested” in a Kamala-themed shitcoin that I had accumulated from July 20, and which I expect to make further multiples as we go into November.

In the rest of this essay I will go over the reasons why I expect Kamala to win.

Joe Biden has by any reasonable measure been one of the best American Presidents of the post-war era. Here’s a list of his greatest achievements:

(1) Tamed post-COVID inflation and presided over a booming economy with surging real wages. The SPX is at all time highs and Nvidia is worth more than the London Stock Exchange. Before you screech, “FIRE economy! It’s all fake!”, note factory construction has doubled since 2022 thanks to prodigious spending on chips and batteries. The competition is in shambles. “Europoors” are the butt of jokes about how they can’t afford air conditioners and young Japanese wistfully discuss flipping burgers in California for $20 a month.

(2) Checkmated Russia’s last dash for empire, exposed BRICS as a paper tiger, and deepened relations with India. China has been geopolitically hemmed in and sanctions on high-end chips have resulted, all else equal, in a 3x markup on compute costs for Chinese AI labs.

(3) Biden even oversaw Wokeness peaking c.2020 and then going into retreat. Walking around Berkeley in a MAGA hat was edgy and transgressive when I did that in 2016. Now tech bros are doing it with zero social sanction, as “anti-Wokeness” has expanded into a lucrative industry that keeps a horde of grifters unproductively employed.

(4) Crime has fallen precipitously as Woke retreats (Ferguson effect). Even San Francisco is finally cleaning up its act, with Gavin Newsom just announcing he is clearing out homeless encampments, and without visiting Chinese dignitaries to provoke the new spate of activity.

(5) The US is literally building God. And speaking of San Francisco, there is no likelier place in the world for the first AGI/ASI to appear.

Now it’s not as if Biden was personally responsible for most of these things, especially those that pertain to the economy and tech. This is extra relevant in Biden’s case, given what we now know about his accelerating cognitive decline over the course of his Presidency. (Though this kind of does validate the competence of the Deep State, no?). However, since crediting or condemning Presidents for secular trends that actualize or reach tipping points under their watch is standard practice, consistency forces us to do the same for Biden. It was a superlative Presidency by any reasonable measure. And now, Kamala stands to inherit it.

What baggage does Trump inherit from his Presidency? Four years of nepotism, cronyism, and attempts to undermine democratic institutions, happily made moot by Trump’s own laziness and incompetence. (Though there are now fears he is better prepared this time round, with Project 2025 provisioning a blueprint for replacing lifelong civil servants with MAGA ideologues). Uncharacteristically, a successful vaccine rollout – Operation Warp Speed – that he can’t even properly capitalize on because so much of the MAGA base are anti-vaxxers. No wall. A conservative Supreme Court that overturned Roe vs. Wade and made women across the country fear for their rights to bodily autonomy. To his credit as a politician, he is at least trying to distance himself from the abortion issue, but that’s a non-trivial endeavor when his main “intellectual” champions are the authors of Project 2025 and the most partisanly pro-Trump influencers have embraced open misogyny as a campaign strategy.

Finally, Trump is known for refusing to accept the results of elections that he doesn’t win, having incorrectly claimed that the 2020 elections were rigged, and tried to overturn them through a combination of political conspiracy and street intimidation that ended in a failed occupation of the US Capitol. Though he left what he know calls the “J6 Patriots” to rot in jail, he continues to claim that his Presidency was stolen from him, and has appointed a VP who has gone from calling him America’s Hitler severato obsequiously parroting his fables.

This account of Biden’s and Trump’s record isn’t meant to be a normative assessment or an endorsement of Kamala. (Though I do think it largely tracks reality, and my sympathies this election cycle should be quite obvious). The reason I wrote it out is that I do consider this to be an accurate retelling of the “standard narrative” of this election, and is probably near universally held amongst what I call “Elite Human Capital”. Even to the extent that some smart individuals still support Trump, it is not so much because they like or trust a serial conman, but because they privilege lower taxes and greater economic freedoms (classical Republicans), fewer bromides against the tech industry and crypto (the Tech Right), or simply prioritize immigration issues above all others (the smarter Dissident Right). There’s also a distinct demographic of former centrists who have had their brains eaten by boomer anti-Woke memes, such as Elon Musk.

It is important to start off with this because many commenters on the right and even center assume that Trump has “momentum”, and will inevitably steamroll Biden’s “DEI hire” from peak Woke era. But even if we allow for that, it loads on a supporting assumption that the Biden administration was a failure and would be easy pickings for the Trump campaign. However, such attacks can be easily countered based on the objective record, and any baseline competent Democratic candidate would be able to make that case – so, 2020!Biden, and Kamala, though probably not catatonic 2024!Biden who “finally beat Medicare”. Now just to be clear, I’m not claiming that Kamala is a brilliant, charismatic, or very attractive politician. But I do not see how she is so uniquely bad – stupid, uncharismatic, extremist – that it would cancel out the advantages of the Biden legacy and Trump’s own toxic baggage, which now includes the hilarious irony of having built a significant part of his campaign around attacks on Biden’s senility only to himself end up as the oldest Presidential candidate in US history.

I will now assess how the candidates compare to each other side to side across various issues in order to validate my claim Kamala is the stronger candidate.

I was far from the first commenter to suggest that “Copmala” lean into her brutal policewomyn image against Felon Don, but I do appear to have been earlier than most, and I am glad to see this has become a popular take (e.g. Anna Gát, Francis Fukuyama).

This might be a shitpost, but the logic is crisp. One of the persistent and more legitimate Republican criticisms of Democrats is that they are “Woke” and lax on law and order, and this is not an undeserved reputation in light of all the “mostly peaceful” protests in the Summer of Floyd, decriminalized shoplifting in San Francisco, and Kamala’s own BLM-pandering history. If Far Left schizos want to help Kamala by whitewashing these unfortunate episodes and on their own time and dime, then by all means they should do so and thanks for all the fish.

What turbocharges the Copmala frame is that Trump is himself a convicted felon with a long history of scamming anyone who’s had dealings with him. This is not to say this is going to be a memetic assassin’s mace. American politics is extremely polarized, and even extreme events such as criminal convictions, failed assassination attempts, and the previous Dem candidate going full senile only produced modest, low single digit shifts in the polls. MAGA people live in a world where Trump is a cool outlaw waging battle against the deep state and the longhouse and the globalist elites and will vote for him even if he shoots someone on Fifth Avenue, whereas a large percentage of Dem voters are so repulsed by Trump that they would have voted for Biden’s corpse just to keep the Bad Orange Man out of power.

But this also limits Trump’s own ability to leverage his prodigious charisma to expand beyond the MAGA base. And besides, this is no longer 2016 when MAGA was something genuinely new and cool, propelled forward by Pepe, tendies, and the first Frog Posters… The movement in the Current Year is now defined by its anger and its conspiracism. The Woke “free speech” campaigners of yesteryear no longer have much in the way of SJW inanities and campus cancellations to highlight, and so have themselves started campaigning to have people fired for expressing their political opinions. None of this is to say that coconut pilling and brat posting is particularly funny or inspirational, but at least the millennial chicks into that are modestly endearing, which I guarantee is not something anyone will ever say of Ian Miles Cheong.

One of the… trump cards of the Trump campaign was the catastrophic validation of Biden senility rumors in the debate – rumors which I, like Scott Alexander, had faded in the light of previous right-wing claims about Biden’s senility in 2020, and even in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. And it was disappointing to see Biden overstay his participation in the race, in defiance of reason and the will of most Dem voters, and in thrall to nepotism – smartest guy he knew Hunter and Dr. Jill – and his own narcissism. This ruled out a contested convention that could have produced a stronger candidate than Kamala.

However, consider the following points. First, in a stunning display of the unity and function that are integral to high human capital liberal elites, Biden was nonetheless successfully pressured into stepping aside by an alliance of Dem kingmakers such as Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, balking UHNWI donors in the Hamptons, and elite journalists and data nerds such as Nate Silver. To illustrate why this is important, just imagine the Republican response if it was Trump who went senile? To even ask this question is to answer it. The GOP is in thrall to a personality cult that transcends ideology and their professed Christianity. The Democratic “Machine” might not be especially competent, inspirational, or honorable – but it did demonstrate its capacity to respond to a crisis, avert the ruinous infighting and blame-shifting that would accompanied the Biden campaign had it continued, and demonstrated that none of its own functionaries are indispensable. This machine is to be faded at one’s own peril.

Second, the Trump campaign had made Biden’s advanced age a centerpoint of their rhetoric. When Biden was replaced, they screeched about a supposed “anti-democratic coup” no matter that it was supported by two thirds of Dem voters and that they themselves had demanded that Biden step aside for months prior. What this bad faith trolling concealed is that the Republicans were suddenly thrust into a much less favorable reality in which Trump, now the oldest Presidential nominee in US history instead of Biden, now has to run against someone who could credibly flip the tables on him on this issue.

Importantly, this also preempts any MAGA attacks on Kamala for concealing Biden’s deterioration. It’s not just that it would be seen as unchivalrous of them for attacking Kamala for loyalty to an old ailing man, not to mention an assault on patient confidentiality. It also opens the Republicans up to a killer comeback: “Speaking of senility, when are you guys replacing Trump?”

One of the most under-remarked features of the Rightoid International as the extent to which it has become a multiracial attractor for low-status men for whom misogyny has emerged as the lowest common denominator (“Incels of the world, unite!”). Aside the tradcon rhetorics descended from Daily Stormer “thot patrol” fantasies of the 2010s and lurid wet dreams about abolishing the 19th, it finds a more concrete expression in opposition to women’s bodily autonomy and reproductive freedoms, not to mention bioliberal values more generally. (Vance helping stymie access to IVF and Desantis banning artificial meat in Florida are of marginal political import, but are part of this general impulse).

Abortion rights are deeply popular in the US and are a central issue for many female voters. Republicans with hardline positions on abortion have been repeatedly trounced even in red states. The repeal of Roe vs. Wade by the conservative Supreme Court that Trump created has made women extremely wary about the danger of a broad rollback of rights they had taken for granted for more than a generation. Project 2025 waxes about using an archaic law to enact a nationwide abortion line and obligate states to report miscarriages to Trump’s federal government, and just recently we learned about JD Vance’s lurid fantasies about Soros paying pregnant Black women to fly to California to get abortions. This isn’t something that only blue-hair pronoun people; anecdotally, I have seen many wine upper-middle class wine mom types express concern about this as well.

In fairness, Trump has denied any connection to or even knowledge of Project 2025 and has vigorously attempted to distance himself from the more “out there” people. But this is a non-enviable task in light of the rhetorics of his most outspoken supporters. They have long attacked Kamala for having slept her way into politics several decades ago. Apart from literally nobody caring if Kamala was a slutty cop in her youth – and what’s the big deal about that, isn’t women sleeping their way into power as “trad” as it gets anyway? – it’s certainly a bold strategy to bring that up when your party is fronted by a guy who cheated on his wife three months after she gave birth with a porn star whom he paid off. More recently, they have started attacking Kamala’s fertility choices. This extends all the way up to JD Vance, who has called Kamala a “childless cat lady” who doesn’t have a “direct stake” in America. The problem with this, apart from the cruelty and factual inaccuracy – Kamala has two adopted kids – is that anti-abortionism coupled with militant natalism comes off as incredibly creepy and off-putting to many women, including many who are otherwise moderates or even conservatives who would vote for normal Republicans.

Here’s where I think the problem is. You can engage in stuff that tends to be off-putting to women in isolation and remain somewhat respectable. You can be a (1) frisky playboy like Hollywood and Neil Strauss/the OG PUAs, you can be a (2) devout moral Christian like Pence who wouldn’t meet women alone away from his wife, or you can be (3) a secular pro-natalist type e.g. the “eugenicist” wing of the Natal Conference. But when there’s too much overlap… it’s bad news, folks. Many people are saying that. Very bad.

This January, Bitcoin/network states evangelist Balaji Srinivasan exclaimed – approvingly – that Republicans are “becoming the men’s party.” I have seen similar sentiments being echoed a lot the past few months by MAGA influencers. I suspect they’ll get what they wish for. I am almost certain that this election will have the biggest male/female voting gender gap in US political history, and this will redound to the benefit of the woman who put predators behind bars, not the guy who flew seven times on Epstein’s Lolita Express.

The single most impressive coup for the Trump campaign has been the successful poaching of Silicon Valley’s secular/anti-Woke technophile scene – christened the Tech Right by

– with names like Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen publicly hopping on the MAGA train. This promises Trump an immediate influx of money from the same Big Tech sector whose market capitalizations have exploded under Biden. In return, presumably under Thiel’s influence, the Republican Party has toned down its anti-abortion rhetoric and dropped opposition to gay marriage and anti-LGBT language from its platform.

More portentously, the Trump campaign has committed to a program to build up energy infrastructure for the trillion dollar cluster and accelerate military AI. (Incidentally, I consider the latter to be extremely bad and basically an existential risk that could kill everyone within the decade, but that’s for another post). But as this pertains to elections, what this implies is that someone – probably Andreessen – has clearly been redpilling the Trump team on situational awareness.

This is a real accomplishment that strengthens the Trump campaign. In particular, it helps shore up the GOP’s primary problem, its lack of qualified cadres, because smart people are just not that enamored with COVID conspiracy theories, social conservatism, and visions of Islamic terrorists sneaking across the Mexican border. As

notes in his analysis of JD Vance’s appointment as VP, this might well be a Faustian bargain pm the part of the Tech Right, and this is my ultimate expectation as well on the basis that leopards don’t change their spots. But in the short-term, it’s a major problem for the Democrats, and a largely self-inflicted one thanks to local governance failures in the SF Bay Area, heated anti-tech rhetoric, and opposition to crypto.

I don’t want to defend the Democrats here because I do think they fucked this up, and I doubt they even learned anything from it. My sympathies here are pro-Republican, at least to the extent that I believe they will probably create an environment more conducive to the OOM-level increase in market cap that crypto needs to institutionalize the decentralized globalism we need to make DeFi self-sustaining and start dismantling the nation-state ah, never mind, we are just normie shitlibs around these parts… Back to programmed scheduling.

So here’s why the Tech Right’s open defection to MAGA, while bad, is not quite as bad as it appears at first glance.

(1) Silicon Valley is not the Tech Right. To be sure, supporting Trump is no longer taboo, as it was in 2016 when creative gadfly

was canceled for being an “Alt Right” artist by people who are now MAGA (center right were the real fash all along). As mentioned above, there are reports of tech bros openly wearing MAGA hats in San Francisco without social sanction. However, this is not the same as MAGA having gone mainstream. According to X polls I saw from a couple of AI risk people, it’s still very solidly Democrat (

– 67% for Biden, pre-debate;

– Biden 2x as strong as Trump amongst tech startup workers; 4.5x as strong amongst other voters, who would probably be mostly EA/AI safety people in his sample). Big Tech in particular – Meta/Facebook, Apple, Alphabet – remain near uniformly Dem.

(2) There’s some very tentative signs Dems are warming up to crypto. At any rate, it seems that its higher human capital elements are realizing that letting Elizabeth Warren set their tone on the world’s fastest growing asset class isn’t a sustainable long-term strategy. 71 Dems including Schumer and my favorite inside trading KWEEN