A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 25 percent of independents and 10 percent of Republicans are less likely to vote for Trump following his conviction. The poll “also found that 56% of Republican registered voters said the case would have no effect on their vote and 35% said they were more likely to support Trump, who has claimed the charges against him are politically motivated and has vowed to appeal,” Reuters reports. “The potential loss of a tenth of his party’s voters is more significant for Trump than the stronger backing of more than a third of Republicans, since many of the latter would be likely to vote for him regardless of the conviction.”

“The verdict has not overhauled the 2024 race nearly as much as Democrats hoped it would,” writes The Washington Post‘s Aaron Blake. “But the totality of the evidence suggests it has dinged Trump a little.”

Some of this perceived shift, ABC adds, could be the result of “differential partisan nonresponse bias”—basically, Republicans may be less keen to respond to polls right now given the bad news they’ve just been dealt in the form of a Trump conviction, while Democrats might be more excited to respond. And none of these shifts are massive; these changes are within the margin of error. Time will tell.