Confused about what the polls have to say about Kamala’s viability for the presidency? Want to know how the Dems’ fortunes have shifted since Biden’s debate, where a slight national preference for Trump has changed into a growing margin for Kamala? We talked to your favorite Twitter account @ettingermentum (he’s also got a Substack!) about whether we should have listened to all that fearmongering about Kamala’s candidacy or not (spoiler: not, but there’s a lot more to be said about it). We also make some very strong predictions about who’s going to win it all in November. Watch below:

Back when Biden had just landed a real dud of a debate performance in late June, you’ll remember that his fellow Dems were quick to criticize, and a few started calling for his exit from the 2024 Democratic ticket. But who would replace him? Of course, Kamala Harris, his successor to the presidency and his current VP, seemed like the natural choice. But part of the Twittersphere also sounded concerns about Kamala. Some called into question the readiness of the American population to vote for a woman of color. Others worried that she’d seem like a step too far left for Biden’s extremely moderate base, although Kamala herself is hardly a progressive (she dropped support of Medicare for All, after all). Could she appease centrists wanting nothing to fundamentally change *and* an increasingly vocal left critical of Biden’s refusal to adopt broadly popular social programs?

With our friend Ettingermentum, we look at the polling and see why the predictions of Kamala’s detractors didn’t end up bearing out. Per these predictions, Kamala was expected to lose some support in Biden’s traditional moderate base, but as Ettingermentum points out, she’s kept steady where Biden had support, and only grown where he could not grow. In other words, there were no tradeoffs to be made between Biden and Kamala: his base has moved to support her, where voters more leery of the aging, anti-progress Biden have proved more likely to back the Kamala-Walz ticket. And that’s why Kamala can increase support where Biden couldn’t. Why is this? And will it be enough to carry her over the finish line in November? You can get answers to all these big questions in our wide-ranging deep dive of a conversation, Episode 186 of KK&F. This episode will be available tomorrow on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Pandora, and more.