A Brookings Institute Report mentions “The 2020 census showed that the 2010s was the first decade in the nation’s history when the white population declined and the second consecutive decade when the white population under age 18 declined.” Despite a modest boost in White fertility and a slight increase in White immigration, Whites continued to decline throughout the 2020s, with all new population growth driven by people of color.

The Brookings Institute reported that the Census’s demographic data for the first third of the 2020s (April 2020 to July 2023), showed that America’s White population declined by an astonishing 2.1 million. The net natural decline for Whites, basically native born fertility vs deaths, was a loss of 2.4 million. However, that decline was offset by 368k new White immigrants, a lot likely Ukrainian refugees.

source: Brookings.edu

The demographic situation is even more bleak for California. From 2020 to 2023, California lost 573k people but lost an astonishing 903.5k Whites out of a population of about 13.6 Million Whites. California also lost 58k Blacks while gaining 183.4k Hispanics and 177k Asians. For the under 18 population, California lost 494k and lost 219.6k for Whites.

source: Brookings.edu

California’s coastal urban metros lost population while inland metros gained population. However, the White population also declined in inland metros and rural areas, albeit at a lower rate than in coastal urban metros. Even Sacramento County, which has recently attracted a lot of Ukrainian immigrants, had a modest White decline. Amador County in the Sierra Foothills, was the only outlier California County to gain Whites, though only by 92.

While LA and the Bay Area lost Whites the most, LA’s metro is now losing Hispanics while Asian growth is stagnating. For the Bay Area, only the Asian population is growing, albeit more modestly than in the 2010s, while the Hispanic population saw a modest decline. The Bay Area’s tech slowdown has perhaps slowed down Asian growth.

While there has been some rebound in immigration to California since the pandemic, Biden’s migrant crisis has not had a dramatic impact on California’s population like it has in other states. Regardless, California’s Hispanic population is still growing significantly in inland areas. Just not in coastal urban areas anymore.

source: PPIC Blog

California is losing people overall, it is just that Whites are the most affected by the exodus. This is primarily due to Whites being more able to relocate with remote work, and that young White families are disproportionately leaving. Whites also have an older population and many elderly people died of Covid. While the Whites leaving are disproportionately working and middle class, there is also a modest exodus among affluent Whites.

While the demographic situation for Whites in California looks bleak, there are some demographic White Pills to consider for the future. After the exodus, those Whites who remain will be more resilient and suited to California. The Whites who remain in California tend to be affluent and affluent Whites have more stable fertility than the White middle class. Also, White fertility in California is not that much lower than for people of color.

source: Birth Gauge on X

California could also see more White immigration from Russia, Ukraine, Israel, and Armenia, as those nations are volatile and have major communities in California. Not to mention the demographic impact on the Bay Area if Trump were to brain drain Canada and Europe of their AI talent. However, the main demographic factor in California is going to be YIMBYism increasing the housing supply. Even though YIMBY is left-coded, YIMBY policies could help California retain Whites and attract White Americans from out of State.