Source: J.D. Vance’s Official Portrait via Wikipedia

Trump’s selection of JD Vance as a running mate makes him the De facto heir to MAGA. While a lot of MAGA populism is symbolic and rhetorical, Vance has taken populist positions on trade, anti-trust, and immigration. However, until fairly recently he was a bootstraps Reaganite, who called for austerity on social programs, so I am skeptical of his populism. Vance is also fairly hawkish towards Iran and China, though more dovish on Russia, far from being a non-interventionist. Regardless, a lot of Reaganites are unhappy about Vance’s nomination.

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Vance has a background in venture capital with strong ties and backing from the Center-Right of Silicon Valley, including Peter Thiel, David Sacks, Marc Andreessen, and Elon Musk. Besides Thiel, Vance was mentored by Yale Law Professor and Tiger Mom, Amy Chua. While Chua epitomizes the archetypical neoliberal striver, she has hinted that she is open to HBD, and I suspect Vance is probably HBD aware.

It will be interesting to see what direction Vance goes, factoring in his ties to Tech oligarchs. There are trade-offs, as the rightwing of Silicon Valley is open to the more grey tribe, dissident sphere, yet also invested in neoliberal policies like h1b immigrant visas and deregulation. The reality is you need some elite support and this Silicon Valley grey tribe elite is preferable to the old guard GOP donor class like the Koch Brothers. I could see a future post-Trump, tech-oriented GOP that is centrist on cultural issues, for natalism/soft eugenics, pro-high skilled immigration, tech accelerationist, pro-crypto currencies, and for replacing social programs with UBI.

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J.D. Vance epitomizes this politics of personal success, a Hillbilly Scotts Irish version of a POC or immigrant striver. While the striver boasts that they overcame the odds, they often don’t do much for their left behind people. The message of Vance’s Hillbilly Elegy was not that Hillbillies or rural White proles were oppressed by the elites but that they were impoverished due to a culture that incentives bad life choices and that they need to lift themselves up from their bootstraps.

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Vance had previously been critical of MAGA for encouraging poor Whites to adopt a victim mindset. However, Vance had some good ideas in Hillbilly Elegy, such as having a mentorship program between elites and proles. There is nothing wrong with self-improvement but it has its limitations and becomes a problem when it detracts from policy reforms and class exploitation.

Vance grew up in a middle class suburb of Cincinnati and has been accused of misrepresenting his background, though his family were from Appalachia. Vance seems uncomfortable with who he is and pretends to be someone he is not. He alternates back and forth between LARPing as a prole and being an elite striver. He remains in this state of limbo between being a Hillbilly and a Silicon Valley elite. He should decide upon one specific archetype, a firebrand populist or a dissident elite maverick.

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Vance just does not come across as presidential in looks and decorum nor is he particularly charismatic. Unfortunately, this excludes a lot of great people with interesting ideas from higher office. I also think that Vance could harm Trump somewhat among female voters. Even if you sympathize with Vance’s comments about childless women, it is an electoral liability.

I think it is cool that I share Twitter/X mutuals with Vance, as Vance followed HBD blogger Steve Sailer, which is a great sign. Also, Matt Pegas a regular co-host of my podcast interviewed Curtis Yarvin, who the media claims is a big influence on Vance. There is a chance that Vance has stumbled across one of my articles at some point.

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Vance is intelligent and much more intellectual than the other MAGA figures. While Trump could have selected another boomer or a diversity pic, I can appreciate that Vance is a White millennial male. Trump’s selection of Vance signals that Trump is symbolically aligning with populism and Vance is some flex of the online youthful right. Basically, Vance is the best of a list of uninspiring potential VP candidates.

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Besides J.D. Vance, Matt Gaetz is the only halfway decent MAGA Republican from a Dissident Centrist standpoint. This is because Gaetz is more culturally libertarian, has taken economic populist positions such as supporting Lina Khan’s anti-trust against Big Tech, is good on civil liberties opposing FISA surveillance, co-sponsored a bill with AOC to legalize research on psychedelics, is more open to environmentalism rejecting climate denial, and is broadly non-interventionist. However, Gaetz has taken more conventionally conservative stances, such as blaming Medicaid expansion for the opioid crisi s. While Gaetz has this frat bro persona, at least he does not LARP as a peasant as Vance does. Regardless, Gaetz is not a major contender for the heir to MAGA, plus he looked ridiculous in Botox at the RNC Convention.

Of other MAGA and GOP populist figures, Thomas Massie is commendable for his hyper-principled non-interventionist stances, but I don’t see him becoming a major player, much like Ron Paul. Vivek Ramaswamy says a lot of the right things and like Vance is more in touch with the youthful dissident energy. However, Vivek comes across as grifty and used to be more of a neoliberal. Marjorie Taylor Greene comes across as kooky and into QAnon-type conspiracy theories while also retaining a lot of mainstream conservative policy positions. Josh Hawley is hawkish on foreign policy and bad on civil liberties, and I hate how sanctimonious and preachy he is. Hawley reminds me of a Bush-era Evangelical in decorum.

I would place Doug Burgum, Glenn Youngkin, and Marco Rubio in a separate category of establishment Republicans who are friendly toward Trump. For Tulsi Gabbard to be a contender as an heir to MAGA, she would have to pivot to the Right. This would seem grifty in contrast with her principled maverick persona, which includes more leftwing stances. Who knows maybe 2028 will be a Vance/Gabbard ticket. However, there is also a high probability that the GOP and MAGA will implode after Trump.

source: @NickJFuentes on X