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Red on Red in Succession Politics — Russian Exceptionalists Try to Interpret American Presidential Politics, by John Helmer
There have always been Russians in the Kremlin who for reasons of imperialist or Orthodox ideology considered themselves exceptionalist in politics. That’s to say, as exceptional or more exceptional than the Americans in the White House.
Since Mikhail Gorbachev ruled Russia forty years ago, there have also been Russian exceptionalists who have wanted, not to compete with the Americans for the power to rule the world, but instead to be loved by the Americans and to be loved by them in return, so that they might share rule of the world together as equals.
The Roman imperial tetrarchy was a system of that kind. So were the husband-and-wife or mother-and-son monarchies of England and Europe in the late medieval period.
After the US coup d’état of December 1991 installed Boris Yeltsin to dismantle the Soviet Union and destroy Communist ideology and its system of domestic rule, the American-loving exceptionalists have continued to hold out in the Kremlin and elsewhere in the Russian organs of government, including the media. Not loving America enough has been reason for stopping rising Russian careerists and censoring their media.
The only holdout strong enough to survive the Gorbachev-Yeltsin putsches and purges has been the Russian military. Because of its success in defeating NATO weapons on the Ukraine battlefield and winning the war against the US, its public approval and voter trust are almost as high as President Vladimir Putin’s. And so, in due course, it will be the Army and the generals whose personal conduct of the war has given them heroic stature, and who will decide on the succession to Putin when his present term expires in 2030 (he will be 78); or when the constitutional term limit is reached in 2036 (84).
In the politics of the Kremlin succession, this Army red is the counterforce to the Trump red of the America lovers. Red on red is the fight for rule in Russia, and rule of the world for the exceptionalists on both sides.
This makes for colour blindness and other forms of partisanship in the way the official Russian media discuss American politics, especially now. To understand how this works in Moscow, read this newly published essay in the semi-official security analysis internet platform, Vzglyad.
The author, Gevorg Mirzoyan, is a regular writer for Vzglyad and an associate professor at the state Finance University in Moscow. His essay can be read in the original here. The translation is verbatim; illustrations have been added.
July 22, 2024
What awaits the United States and the whole world after Biden’s exit from the election race
By Gevorg Mirzayan
For the first time in the history of the United States, the head of state withdrew from the election race in the midst of an election campaign for a second term. Apparently, Joseph Biden was given an offer that could not be refused. However, his decision, in turn, puts both the American leadership and US allies in Europe in front of a series of very difficult decisions.
“And although my intention was to seek re-election, I believe that in the interests of my party and the country, I should step aside and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president until the end of my term.”
These words of Joe Biden – about withdrawing his candidacy from the election – have been anticipated for many months. Since it became clear that the state of his health (primarily mental) does not allow Biden to successfully confront Donald Trump. This was shown by the debates between the candidates which took place at the end of June.
Source: https://johnhelmer.net/
Why did Biden give up
In the more than three weeks since the debate, US President Biden has shown unprecedented tenacity. Despite pressure from the party and his closest associates, he refused to withdraw from the race. He even announced that he would continue his election campaign from July 22 (interrupted due to the coronavirus found in him). “Yes, a number of Democrats called on him to resign, but there were practically no signals from people close to the president that this resignation would happen,” former White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on this occasion.
But it happened – apparently due to a combination of the health condition of the US president, blackmail by campaign sponsors and the loss of the last allies. Biden, who did not want to leave with honour, could have been removed in disgrace without his desire – for example, by a vote on the 25th amendment to the US Constitution, which provides for a change of the head of state due to his inability to govern the country.
Source: https://constitutioncenter.org/
For current efforts in Congress to invoke the Amendment and force Biden to resign immediately, read this.
Most likely, this is why the US president ended his election campaign. In fact, he was faced with the singular choice – either surrender honourably or be expelled shamefully. In such circumstances, his decision looks the only possible and final one.
However, for the US Democratic Party, as well as for American allies around the world, everything is just beginning now. In the next few months, the liberal globalist elite will have to go through a number of important forks in the road.
What will happen next with American politics
The first one will come in a matter of hours – when the US Democratic Party officially names Biden’s replacement. It would seem that the way is clear here – it will be US Vice President Kamala Harris. She is a favourite with the bookmakers, the Establishment, and even Biden himself (who has publicly supported her candidacy).
The problem is that she is not a favourite among voters – too left-wing, too radical, too inexperienced. Her anti-rating is worse than Trump’s. However, Harris is nominally next in line to inherit. It will be extremely difficult for Democrats to leave her out because of her skin color and gender – because then black voters and feminists, who are the most important groups of the electorate, will be outraged.
Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/
Perhaps the Democrats could have come up with something. However, Biden, offended by the “traitors”, slammed the door goodbye. By publicly supporting Harris’ candidacy before the party’s decision, he thereby made her uncontested. To suggest an alternative candidate is a scandal. Not to offer one is to increase the chances of losing.
The second fork in the road is also on the horizon, and here the choice is ambiguous. Republicans are demanding not only the withdrawal of Biden’s candidacy, but also his resignation from the presidency. “If Joe Biden does not have the cognitive abilities to participate in the election race, then he definitely does not have these abilities to perform the functions of commander–in-chief,” writes Republican vice presidential candidate J. D. Vance.
The logic of the Trumpists is clear. If they manage to get Biden’s resignation, then Kamala Harris, as acting president, will be responsible for everything that happens in American politics for three and a half months. After that, the whole country will once again be convinced that Harris is not capable of governing the state.
Will Biden succumb to pressure and resign as president? Probably not, rather than yes. But what will happen to his health condition? We have another intrigue ahead of us, perhaps even more important than Biden’s participation in the election campaign.
The third fork in the road awaits the US Democratic Party at the party congress in August. Yes, the Establishment chose Harris – but the population voted for Biden. Such events are becoming a precedent in the recent history of the United States, and it is extremely important for the leadership of the party to make sure that all delegates, all party leaders, support their candidate in a enthusiastic rush.
But there may not be such a friendly movement. A number of Biden’s opponents in the election (for example, Robert Kennedy Jr.) have complained that the party rigged the primaries in favor of Biden. And now that Biden is gone, they can demand a re-vote. But demands such as these will be displayed by the Republicans as proof of Harris’s illegitimacy as a candidate.
What will happen next with the policy of the US allies
The external part of the global liberal establishment, especially the European allies of the United States, is also facing a number of forks in their road. The first of these is who to swear allegiance to now. Whether to follow the path of Zelensky (trying to butter up to Trump) in the hope that he will forgive everything – or stay in the camp of the Democrats, continuing to call Trump a threat to the Western world.
The choice would be obvious if Harris had a high chance of winning. However, Harris, with her ambitions and inexperience, is: (a) low-profile and (b) can, if she wins, create even more problems for the Europeans than the experienced and pragmatic Trump. Therefore, it is possible that Biden’s decision may cause a real political panic among Washington’s European allies.
The second fork in the road is how to behave against the background of the deepening political turbulence in the United States: continue to move in the wake of the American aircraft carrier (even if it sails on to reefs) – or start moving away from the Americans, and to look for new partners, diversify ties, and recall national interests.
Finally, the third fork for Europe is what to do next with Ukraine. Biden’s departure indicated that whatever the outcome of the American elections — Trump’s victory and the pragmatization of foreign policy, or Harris’s victory and internal chaos in the United States — Washington’s participation in the Ukrainian conflict will diminish. And Europe will not be able to compensate for the loss of American participation – military, political, and economic.
Therefore, the choice is simple – to try to find a diplomatic solution with Moscow. Or just wait for Russia to solve its problems with Ukraine militarily. After that, it will be Russia to dictate other conditions to Europe – for example, on the principles of the European collective security system.
