Something really has shifted these past two weeks. Will it hold?

It took him three election cycles, but Donald J. Trump, by sheer luck, dogged persistence, and the over-reach of his enemies, now bestrides our political scene with such dominance that he even allowed himself a little faux-serenity in his speech last night. In less than a decade, he has entrenched the GOP in a very different form of conservatism than its post-1945 past; removed almost all traces of the neocon legacy (apart from debt and tax cuts); found a possible, serious successor in furthering this version of the right, J.D. Vance; and, for the first time, produced an extremely smooth, well-crafted, confidence-boosting, feel-good convention. Trump’s political story — like this choreographed television spectacle — really could be called Triumph of the Will if it were not so reminiscent of Idiocracy.

That is an extraordinary political achievement, a tribute to masterful demagoguery, rank opportunism, an almost entirely invented reality — and a psychotic ability to stick to it. But days before this triumph, in a moment so purely American it still bewilders, Trump was bestowed the mantle of Providence as well. I still look at that video and those photo-stills of the attempted assassination with my jaw permanently dropped. If you believe, as I do, that history is made by both structural change and pure, random chance, then that bullet’s trajectory, and Trump’s subtle shift of his head, is up there with Gavrilo Princip’s but in reverse. The shooter missed, thank God. I shudder to think where we would be now if the bullet had blown Trump’s head apart — as it was right on target to do. We would be in a near civil war.

But we’re not. America’s luck held. And the narrative that Trump has crafted — which requires a truly historic suspension of disbelief — just became more potent. The outsider businessman, taking on the corrupt elite, hounded by the woke press, targeted by leftist courts, unjustly impeached, outrageously smeared, almost assassinated … somehow survived and has the prospect of the greatest comeback in American history.

“They” spied on his campaign, sabotaged his policies, demonized his supporters, invented hoaxes to impeach him, then prosecuted him four times on flimsy or fake grounds, and yet he still stands. As many speakers at the convention said, “they” also tried to kill him. When he was president, the economy boomed, the world was at peace, crime was the lowest in the history of the world, wages high … until “they” stole the election from him and instantly turned America into Venezuela.

The truth, of course, is immensely different, but there are enough shreds of verity in Trump’s skewed version of events for the narrative to seduce. If you largely believe it, as a plurality of Americans seem to, you will vote in unheard-of numbers this November, in what might be the most multi-racial, working-class coalition the modern GOP has ever assembled. And this “enemy of democracy” will actually be shown to be its unifying salvation.

You can see how the producers of the convention and image-makers of the campaign tried to create this triumphant, magnanimous Trump 2.0, appealing more to those outside his party, more moderate in tone, more grandfatherly in affect. Every conservative erogenous zone was fluffed: the victims of crime by illegal immigrants, World War II vets, UFC, and MaMaw with her 19 hidden handguns. But the edges were softened by grandchildren, Gold Star families, an adorable dog, a moving tribute to the man murdered in Trump’s stead, and Vance’s mother, with her tenuous grip on sobriety.

The assassination attempt cemented the image of Trump as conservative victim. And in a truly surreal way, the near-death experience will have deepened the Christian nationalism that has proven so potent these past few years. What greater symbol of the intervention of the Holy Spirit than that bullet’s trajectory! And Trump’s iconic response — that impossible-to-contrive photo of his fist raised, face bloodied — is an instant Jacksonian legend. For me, the instantaneous response — “Fight!” “Fight!” “Fight!” — also showed Trump’s infernal desire to turn everything into mindless aggression. Fight what? Fight whom? Who cares? Just fight!

What makes this narrative feel like something deeper than a mere looming electoral college landslide is that, simultaneously, the entire liberal establishment seems to be imploding. The Democrats’ Biden formula — impose radical social, economic, and cultural change by fronting it with a moderate, easy-to-bully old man — has unraveled as obviously as Biden’s health. One reason is that the president is simply incapable of catching the attention of the country — except in universal cringe — and has singularly failed to construct a compelling narrative of his own.

Another is the incoherence of the Resistance. If you want to protest potential abuse of the justice system by a future president Trump, don’t bring an obviously flimsy, political case in New York City that merely helped Trump sweep back to dominance in the GOP. If you want a saner GOP, don’t demonize every other possibility, from DeSantis to Vance. If you emphasize the danger of political violence, don’t turn a blind eye as BLM burns America’s cities to the ground, or ignore Antifa. If you want to accuse Fox News of propaganda, don’t push out equal and opposite propaganda on toxic MSNBC. If you think democracy dies in darkness, why try to get Trump legally excluded from some state ballots, and prevent any real primary among Democrats?

More saliently, if one of your main lines of attack on Trump is his mendacity, it was probably not a great idea to tell the entire country that Biden was, in Joe Scarborough’s words, “far beyond cogent. In fact, I think he’s better than he’s ever been — intellectually, analytically…”

The lies the Democrats have been telling us these past few years are legion: inflation won’t happen/is temporary/is good for you; the Southern border is secure; “equity” is “fairness”; biological sex is a “spectrum”; Ukraine is about to win the war; Russia’s economy can be sanctioned to death; political violence is entirely on the far right; children can meaningfully consent to sex changes; the only thing holding black Americans back is white bigotry; the mainstream media is fair; and women have penises. Yes, Trump is a shameless liar. But the left’s propaganda has muddied the waters. When NBC’s higher-ups took Morning Joe off the air this week, it was a real moment. Even the muckety-mucks couldn’t take the lucrative propaganda anymore.

I will never vote for Trump — because he is so psychologically disturbed and so contemptuous of the rule of law that he remains a danger to us and the world. But I can see the logic of Trumpism. Those who feel left behind — culturally, economically — need at least one party to represent them and their values. As Biden has proven, protectionism is not all bad, especially when related to supply chains and national security. Mass immigration is out of control, and only one party gets it. Support for those who have lost the most from globalization seems to me a defensible conservative position, after migrant winners like me have had such a good run of it. And the madness of the neocon war machine demands a president able to spurn it.

In Britain, the right-populist working-class formula appeared like a chimera after Boris Johnson’s landslide, and then dissipated into Boris’ incoherence and sloth. In France, the new right is kept from power only by tactical voting. In Italy, a version of this conservatism is already in place. In America, with Trump alone, I long doubted its ability to emerge from his vanity and insanity. But his pick of Vance changes that. In fact, his pick suggests that Trump himself may now be comfortable with Trumpism from a non-family member beyond his second term.

Vance has walked the walk of this new rightism in his brief time in national politics. As Lee Fang has noted:

Vance was one of the first modern Republicans to walk the picket lines in support of the United Autoworker Union strike for higher wages and benefits last year … Speaking to American Compass last year, Vance explained his belief that market forces have failed the American family and that policymakers should consider tax penalties for corporations that ship jobs overseas and subsidies for businesses that restore the nation’s manufacturing base.

And Vance’s deep skepticism of the war in Ukraine and his general call for retrenchment in foreign policy is also desperately needed in Washington. The neocons have learned nothing from their massive failures; and extracting their extremism from the GOP will offer a real choice in foreign policy for the first time in a long while.

Alongside Vance, there is also now a very rough-and-ready intellectual, judicial and bureaucratic apparatus to put Trumpism into effect. From American Compass to American Affairs, the Dishcast has been previewing these new conservatives these past few years, and I find their critiques of neoliberalism compelling. All this means is that, for the first time, a second Trump term will likely have much more potential than his first — if Trump himself doesn’t squander it. We have, in other words, a counter-establishment beginning to take shape that will expand the choices American voters can meaningfully make. That’s not the death of democracy; it’s a rebirth of sorts.

One final thing: a critical conservative reformulation took place this past week. It was the argument that America is not just an idea but a home. And in the past few decades, the value of that idea on the right has subsumed the reality of that home. Trumpism is an adjustment back to the center in that respect. And a conservatism that cannot grasp why home is important is not a real conservatism.

Is this election over? Probably — as I’ve thought for a while now. Is the liberal regime that has governed both party elites since the Second World War also over? Probably as well. But in so far as that represents a response to truly changed circumstances, and to the evident failures of neoliberalism, that’s not so bad. A largely unified, uniparty blob in DC needed disruption. Trump disrupted. Now Trumpism may have a chance to prove itself in government … or not.

Can the Democrats respond with the skill, poise and energy required? If Biden goes, and an open convention can showcase newer, younger talent, there’s still a chance. But it will take nerve to seize it.

Lionel is an author and journalist. She’s written 17 novels, most notably We Need to Talk About Kevin, and in 2022 she published her first book of nonfiction, Abominations: Selected Essays from a Career of Courting Self-Destruction. She’s currently a columnist for The Spectator, and her new book is Mania, a satirical novel about a dystopian movement that claims that everyone is equally smart.

We recorded the episode last month — listen to it here. There you can find two clips of our convo — on the relief that comes with personal limitations, and whether feminism has run its course. That link also takes you to commentary on our episodes with Stephen Fry, Erick Erickson, Elizabeth Corey, and Christian Wiman. Plus, readers discuss the chaotic presidential race.

“In the last 18 days: Trump’s opponent tanks in debate; Democrats deeply divided on whether Biden needs to be dumped; Trump escapes death by an inch or two; Judge dismisses the strongest case against him. May be the biggest stretch of luck by a candidate in history,” – Jeff Greenfield.

“That’s the whole fucking election. Every image from that is iconic and couldn’t have been created on a Hollywood movie,” – an anonymous Dem congressman.

“Circumstances forced the man to show himself, and what he showed was something humanly impressive, whatever your partisan leanings are,” – Matthew Crawford.

“Biden can’t get through a debate, and a bullet can’t stop Donald Trump,” – Bill Maher.

“Oh, I’ve heard from him,” – President Biden, responding to a question about Kimberly Cheatle, the female head of Secret Service, whom he appointed.

“The last time I was at a convention that felt like this, was Obama 2008. There’s something happening,” – Van Jones at the GOP convention.

“If Trump wins, Biden can still run again in 2028,” – Richard Harambe.

“Lester Holt very smoothly interprets the guttural sounds as if they were coherent, kind of like Han Solo responding to Chewbacca,” – Jon Chait on Holt’s interview with Biden.

“NY Times talks to 11 black men about why they like Trump. Their biggest gripe against Democrats is that they treat all black people as victims who can’t help themselves,” – Richard Hanania.

“[I]t’s hard to know exactly what you’d get if Vance ascended to the presidency, especially if he no longer had Trump to impress. Maybe — who knows — he’s playing a very, very long game in which might eventually emerge as a pragmatic, Romney-esque Republican,” – Nate Silver.

“Trump’s new platform … significantly moderates the party’s traditional stance on abortion. The party now makes concessions to him, not vice versa,” – Gabe Fleisher.

“A bullet couldn’t stop Trump; a virus just stopped Biden,” – Van Jones.

“I do believe there will be a rational immigration policy eventually passed. I think there’s gonna have to be some time. What’s interesting about our country, if you study history, is that there are some isms that occasionally pop up. One is isolationism, and its equal twin protectionism, and its evil triplet nativism,” – George W. Bush in 2011.

“I know that there was not the same red meat, sort of blood-and-soil nationalism that you might hear in, I don’t know, other parallel universe Republican conventions, but I do think there were some sort of Easter eggs of white nationalism in [Vance’s] speech. … [He] fundamentally believes in the supremacy of whiteness and masculinity,” – Alex Wagner, MSNBC.

“Like his mentor, like Peter Thiel, who had given him all his jobs in the world, Mr. Vance also when he founded his ‘own’ venture capital firm with help from Peter Thiel, named it after a Lord of the Rings thing. He called it Narya, N-A-R-Y-A, which you can remember because it’s ‘Aryan,’ but you move the N to the front,” – Rachel Maddow, MSNBC, who seems to think Tolkien was a fascist.

“We still don’t know for sure whether Donald Trump was hit by a bullet. … We know almost nothing. Why?” – Joy Reid, MSNBC.

Kraków, Poland, 10.34 am

A reader writes:

I do not understand where you get this notion of a “Trump landslide.” Correct, many Americans are troubled seeing Biden stumbling as of late, but this is not necessarily going to result in more votes for Trump. Much as Biden falters, Trump has a ceiling over him. Many moderate and independent voters are not going to vote for Trump. Illegal immigration, crime, and inflation were all high in 2022, yet the Democrats took the Senate and came close to holding the House. Contrast that to Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994. Trump is a barrier to Republicans gaining dominance.

Another considers the odds:

Talk of a landslide is premature. Prior to the assassination attempt (which you obviously hadn’t factored into your Friday column), Trump was two points ahead in national polling, and about a 55-60% likely winner, according to betting markets. This places him below the likelihood that Clinton had of winning in 2016, even after two weeks of the Democrats collectively freaking out and calling on the president to leave the race. This is a very tight contest.

As Biden always says, compare him to the alternative. In this case, a Dem alternative would be someone who has not proven himself or herself in a primary and does not have the democratic legitimacy that Biden has. Any possible benefit from an old-school open convention has to be balanced against the risk of an untested candidate running a compressed campaign.

If that candidate were more likely than Biden to beat Trump, we would expect to see a wild swing in the betting markets over the past two weeks. Instead, we’ve seen Trump increase his likelihood of winning by about five percent. It’s now gone up another ten percent after the assassination attempt, but that doesn’t change the fact that alternatives to Biden are not electorally more palatable than Biden. And even a 25% chance in the betting markets is about the same as a coin flip coming up heads twice in a row.

If we were having this conversation in December, there would be options. But we’re not. There is no strategically better choice at this stage than sticking with the candidate who has the delegates and hoping for the best. The best we Never Trumpers can hope for is other factors to tilt the race against Trump.

Another dissent:

You’re downplaying the real potential of American fascism, especially with Trump’s pledge to launch “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.” Between the National Guard in friendly states and Border Patrol nationwide, that’s a lot of power for an authoritarian president. Did you see all the “Mass Deportation Now!” signs on the floor of the GOP convention?

Liberal democracies deport illegal immigrants all the time. And the job of the executive branch is to enforce the law passed by Congress. That’s not fascism. Yes, the Trump goal is different in degree — and, I’d say, pretty much unenforceable without a national mandate of e-Verify — but not fascist. If he were deporting legal immigrants or native citizens, you’d be onto something.

Another reader looks to the judiciary:

You claimed that Trump “has now been granted vague and unprecedented immunity powers by SCOTUS whose limits he will doubtless exploit.” It’s not like you to be shallow in your thinking, Andrew. Since the republic was founded, and as is the case in every democracy, the head of state has had some level of immunity. I needn’t belabor why this is essential. In America, this has been tacitly understood but not written down anywhere, thus Obama can order the murder of an American citizen via drone strike and get away with it — as he should! Being POTUS means having to do bad things to bad people that are not, strictly speaking, legal. When the issue has come up, previous presidents have routinely claimed total immunity.  Nixon famously said, “If the president does it, then it’s legal.”

It has also been tacitly understood that former presidents are not to be harassed with lawfare. The Democrats broke that gentlemen’s agreement with their harassment of Trump (though I believe the insurrection charges had to proceed), thus the issue of immunity surfaced once again. And again, the (former) POTUS asserted absolute immunity. But since the gentlemen’s agreement is no longer respected, SCOTUS was essentially forced to step in, weren’t they? They did not ask to make this ruling; they were obliged to.

Please note that SCOTUS did not give Trump what he wanted. They gave him — and Biden, and all future presidents — complete immunity within their “core constitutional duties” and zero immunity outside that. As a constitutional non-scholar, I find the language vague as well, but SCOTUS rulings are often deliberately vague, allowing future courts the latitude to rule prudently.

Sotomayor claims this will permit Trump — and all future POTUS — to order Seal Team Six to murder his or her opponents with impunity. Really? Future courts will rule that political murder is a core constitutional duty? In the current situation, will the Court rule that fomenting an insurrection against the Constitution is a core constitutional duty? I think not. The current Court has a conservative majority, but it remains uncaptured.

I’m devoting a podcast to this question very soon. Another reader is incredulous:

I can’t believe you mentioned John Fetterman as a possible candidate for president! Even before his stroke and depression, he was manifestly less serious and well informed than his chief rival for the senatorial nomination, Conor Lamb. Fetterman is a creation of image and social media snark, and nothing more. Now he is psychologically unstable, mentally impaired, and must process messages via teleprompter. What a crazy world we’re in when winning an election in a purple state seems to be all that is required to make a person deserve consideration for the presidency in the eyes of even a generally intelligent, independent-minded observer.

One more reader quotes me:

“There is one reason and one reason only why this kind of conciliatory exchange cannot happen any time soon in America, and that is Donald J. Trump.” It’s not Trump, but a media playing favorites and allowing Democrats to get away with the same lying Trump does.

I can’t stand Trump, but he’s the one that had the balls enough to call everyone out. I completely disagreed with the way he’s done it, and the way he attacks his opponents, but Trump discovered how much the disenfranchised enjoyed it. He’s just playing to the crowd. And like you said, he’s not disciplined or hardworking enough to be an effective dictator. Things in this country will only change when it gets bad enough to force more of the general public to engage and vote in primaries so we don’t have the terrible candidates we do now.

Thanks as always for the dissents, and keep ‘em coming: dish@andrewsullivan.com.

The irrepressible Richard Simmons — RIP:

• Trump’s talk of “unity” is self-serving, of course.


• Gabe Fleisher compiles the mounting failures by the Secret Service, which is ducking responsibility.


• The conspiracy theories are predictably bonkers. Erickson’s upshot: “The reality is we are governed by idiots.”


• Tim Noah makes the case for banning the gun used against Trump and others.


• Mary Harrington grapples with the criticism of having women in the Secret Service.


• A collection of the most cutting things Vance said about Trump. But we should take his conversion seriously, says Damon Linker.


• Dan Drezner chides Biden: “It’s not about the foreign policy, stupid.”


• Matt Yglesias makes “the case for Kamala Harris, from a former hater.”


• Much of Silicon Valley is now loving Trump.


• Nate Silver is very critical of 538, his former perch.


• David Lat breaks down the decision to drop the classified-documents case.


• Abigail Shrier assails the new law in California that “keeps parents in the dark” over gender indoctrination in schools.


• Andy Lewis imagines an “ethical clinical trial into puberty blockers.”


• Jonah Goldberg debates Niall Ferguson’s contention that we’re living in “late Soviet America.”


• A short history of toilet paper.


• Frank Fukuyama merges with Persuasion, and Yascha Mounk launches a weekly column. Congrats!

Where do you think? (The cartoon beagle is hiding a key clue.) Email your entry to contest@andrewsullivan.com. Please put the location — city and/or state first, then country — in the subject line. Bonus points for fun facts and stories. Proximity counts. The deadline for entries is Wednesday night at midnight (PST). The winner gets the choice of a View From Your Window book or two annual Dish subscriptions.

See you next Friday.