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The European Parliament elections in Poland in 2024 were considered by all the main players and commentators as a follow-up to the Polish parliamentary elections of 2023 — so I encourage all readers to read my report on it, as well as my essay on the new liberal government in Poland.

Polish politicians, analysts, and voters have always considered the European Parliament elections as secondary to the national parliamentary elections. The results of this assumption have been rather second-rate candidates from all parties on the side of the politicians and low voter turnout on the side of the people. 2024 was no exception to this rule.

The political context of the elections

The elections were a test of the three main Polish political parties: the ruling coalition of Koalicja Obywatelska (Civic Coalition), Lewica (Left), and Trzecia Droga (Third Way); the main opposition party, the previously ruling Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (Law & Justice); and the “anti-system” populist party Konfederacja (Confederation).

The currently ruling coalition consists of centrists and liberals: the Civic Coalition (its main party being Platforma Obywatelska — Citizens Platform led by the current Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk), Left (a union of small Leftist, green, and post-Communist parties), and Third Way (an unlikely alliance of the oldest Polish party, the agrarian Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe — Polish People’s Party and the youngest Polish mainstream party, Polska 2050 — Poland 2050, a centrist party led by television celebrity and Catholic journalist Szymon Hołownia). They decided to contest the elections as three separate entities. This was a result of Donald Tusk’s strategy of “devouring the side dishes,” as Polish commentators call the practice of the largest party in a coalition stealing away voters from its smaller partners. Donald Tusk has created a public image of himself as a smiling liberal, but in reality he is one of the most cunning, backstabbing, and unforgiving players in Polish politics.

Law & Justice competed in the elections as a coalition of the actual Law & Justice party and smaller Right-leaning parties, with its actual leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, running everything but staying in the shadows — as is his usual modus operandi.

Confederation was the only party present in the Polish parliament which ran in the elections while using openly anti-European Union slogans.

The main topics of the political campaign this time included Poland’s role in the European Union, the European Green Deal, the ongoing migrant crisis, and the Russo-Ukrainian War. Now, the interesting thing is that all of the parties — with few exceptions — agreed on these points: Poland should take on a stronger role in the European Union, the European Green Deal is a mistake, Poland should not accept migrants, and Poland should support Ukraine. The main strategy of the campaign was to present the other parties as falsely supporting this agenda, or else of being ineffective in achieving these goals. The Left was the only party to have a different agenda on three of these points, as they support a stronger role for the EU, they support the European Green Deal, and they believe Poland should accept migrants. (They do, however, support Ukraine in the war against Russia.) Confederacy is the only pro-war party (or, in terms of the now reemerging Soviet doublespeak, anti-war party), meaning that they indirectly support the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. When it comes to the other three points, they have the same opinions as the other main parties (as well as the vast majority of Polish voters), but they are the only ones to openly call for leaving the EU in order to achieve these goals.

As I mentioned earlier, neither the parties nor the voters were very interested in these elections, treating them as a second round of the parliamentary elections of 2023. But right before the elections there was a game-changer: a young Polish soldier who had been stabbed by an illegal migrant on May 28 on the border with Belarus died of his injuries on Thursday, June 6, just before the beginning of the campaign silence in the days before the election.[1] To further stir up the situation, two journalists from the liberal media outlet Onet, which is very supportive of Tusk, revealed that a month earlier, some Polish soldiers who fired warning shots to dissuade illegal migrants from storming the Polish border had been arrested by the Polish Military Police. The liberal (!) journalists nevertheless defended the right of the soldiers to use firearms against the invaders and called their arrest a disgrace.

As most readers might be aware, the neo-soviet occupation government of Alexander Lukashenka in Belarus, in cooperation with neo-soviet Russia, has been importing thousands of non-white migrants from Africa and the Middle East and using them to storm the Polish and Lithuanian borders. This is more or less in line with the policy that has been openly stated by Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials and pro-Kremlin ideologists, such as Alexander Dugin, of replacing the native white populations of Europe with non-white immigrants. This strategy has now intensified: Instead of simply herding disorganized groups of non-whites toward the border, the Belarussian KGB is training young, non-white males in how to cut fences and use simple weapons against Polish and Lithuanian soldiers and border guards. Then, such groups are escorted to the border and coordinated by the Belarussian border guards, who then attack the soldiers and guards on the other side of the border with makeshift spears and such while hiding behind human shields made up of women and children. One of the Polish soldiers was stabbed with such a (most likely poisoned) improvised spear made out of wood, a military knife, and tape; he unfortunately died of his wounds, and probably blood poisoning, a week later in the hospital.

While most Poles support our troops and are against both the eastern neo-soviet regimes as well as non-white migrants, the death of this young soldier combined with the information about the arrest of other soldiers fanned the flames of both patriotic and anti-immigration feelings. This was quickly picked up by the mainstream parties and politicians, who began to use more and more patriotic and militaristic slogans. The only party to refrain from doing so was Left, given that they were previously openly calling for letting in non-white migrants and opposing the use of force against them; although once they understood that their pro-immigrant slogans were putting them in a very bad light in the eyes of the voters, they stopped their campaign altogether, allegedly to “honor the fallen soldier.” All of these events quickly became the most important point of discussion in Poland, vastly overshadowing the elections that were already not considered very important.

The turnout and results

This time we had a voter turnout of 40.65%, which was much lower than the record-breaking 74.38% of the 2023 national parliamentary elections.

The European election was the first one won by the Civic Platform/Coalition in ten years (a small reminder: they received fewer votes than Law & Justice in the 2023 elections, although thanks to their forming a coalition with other parties, they managed to form a majority government): 37.06%, or 21 parliamentary seats. I must admit that, putting aside all my antipathy toward this party and their leader, Donald Tusk has managed to pick the most professional candidates of all parties. Sure, they are liberals with no moral backbone, but they are good political players, and they seem to have the right qualifications for the job (such as knowing foreign languages and having experience in international politics). It seems that this was the party that took these elections the most seriously, and it paid off in the end.

The second winner — or the first loser — was Law & Justice: 36.16% (20 seats), proving once again that they are a major political force with a strong constituency that has not fallen apart since losing the elections last year. Jarosław Kaczyński has totally changed his party’s strategy for the European Parliament. Previously the most important “European” candidates from his party were conservative intellectuals (the so-called “Professors’ Faction”). This time, however, Kaczyński decided to bet on people who either were experienced internal party organizers (thus receiving a seat in Brussels as their reward for their party work), or whom he considered to be an internal danger to his party (a seat in Brussels thus becoming their exile far away from the party). Unfortunately, Kaczyński has become the man his liberal opponents have long portrayed him to be: a bitter old man with terrible mood swings that guide his political decisions. But taking into account the quality of the younger generation of Law & Justice politicians, I can only wish him good health and hope he will be running the party at least for a few more years.

The third-place party was a surprise to some (especially the liberal media), but had been expected by those who have been paying attention to the latest populist trends in Europe: Confederacy, with 12.08% (six seats). One of their candidates who has won a seat is everyone’s favorite trickster of Polish politics, the fire-extinguisher wielding conqueror of menorahs Grzegorz Braun. I already feel sorry for the interpreters in Brussels, as Braun’s tirades of compound-complex sentences are difficult to follow even for native Polish speakers.

In fourth place was Third Way, with 6.91% (three seats), which was a huge letdown for this old/new political player. After the 2023 elections they were hoping to continue gaining power and finally replace Civic Platform as the main centrist/liberal party in Poland, and their leader Szymon Hołownia, seems to have really believed that he would become the next President. With such a result, however, they are on the brink of extinction, and might not make it to the next parliamentary elections.

In last place was the Left, with 6.30% (three seats). This was a huge disappointment for them, given that they were the only openly pro-EU force in a country that is believed by some to be extremely pro-EU. It has been a great joy to see their slogans met with the disapproval of Polish voters, and I am waiting for the Left to finally die out.

Conclusions

Compared to the migrant crisis on the Polish border, which is part of the hybrid war being waged on Poland and other white neighboring states by the neo-soviet occupation governments of Russia and Belarus, the European parliamentary elections were indeed a minor issue.

While I am not happy with the liberals’ victory, I am pleased by the fact that most of the parties were of one mind on the most pressing contemporary issues: strengthening the position of Poland in the EU, counteracting the European Green Deal, stopping the inflow of non-white migrants into Poland, and supporting Ukraine in its struggle against the Russian invasion. These are good nationalist goals, and are supported by most of the Polish society. The main question is now whether any of these elected politicians will actually do anything to achieve these aims.

Note

[1] Poland has a law which requires political parties to suspend their campaigning the day prior to an election as well as on the day itself.