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Foreign Policy, Non-Interventionism, and the Draft
Interestingly, Independents lead the way in skepticism about whether the Global War on Terror left the US homeland safer from terrorism. For the first question, 50.3% of Independents at least somewhat disagreed, and 31.6% at least somewhat agreed, compared to 38.2% of Democrats who at least somewhat disagreed and 42.4% who at least somewhat agreed, and 40.8% of Republicans who at least somewhat disagreed and 45.8% who at least somewhat agreed.
| Q. 1 How much do you agree with the following statement: “The United States homeland is safer from terrorist attacks due to the Global War on Terror.” | ||||||
| Results by Party | Another | |||||
| # | % | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Party | |
| Strongly agree | 61 | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Somewhat agree | 336 | 33.3% | 36.6% | 28.1% | 36.3% | 27.6% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 146 | 14.5% | 17.2% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 17.2% |
| Somewhat disagree | 237 | 23.5% | 24.6% | 26.9% | 19.5% | 17.2% |
| Strongly disagree | 203 | 20.1% | 13.6% | 23.4% | 21.3% | 37.9% |
| I don’t know | 25 | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
Non-interventionism may therefore be a way for politicians to court Independent voters who can sway the tide in close elections.
Interestingly, respondents aged 18-29 had a less negative view of the Global War on Terror’s impact on economic prosperity and freedom and democracy at home.[3]
| Q. 3 How much do you agree with the following statement: “The United States is more economically prosperous due to the Global War on Terror.” | ||||||
| Results by Age | % | % | % | % | ||
| # | % | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | 65 and over | |
| Strongly agree | 11 | 1.1% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Somewhat agree | 99 | 9.8% | 22.4% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 12.4% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 153 | 15.2% | 23.0% | 21.5% | 23.7% | 31.1% |
| Somewhat disagree | 297 | 29.5% | 21.9% | 26.4% | 26.0% | 27.1% |
| Strongly disagree | 421 | 41.8% | 18.0% | 33.5% | 30.7% | 26.2% |
| I don’t know | 27 | 2.7% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
| Q.5 How much do you agree with the following statement: “The United States is freer and more democratic due to the Global War on Terror.” | ||||||
| Results by Age | % | % | % | % | ||
| # | % | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | 65 and over | |
| Strongly agree | 20 | 2.0% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Somewhat agree | 98 | 9.7% | 15.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 10.7% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 196 | 19.4% | 20.8% | 14.5% | 19.3% | 24.0% |
| Somewhat disagree | 283 | 28.1% | 26.2% | 20.7% | 33.8% | 28.4% |
| Strongly disagree | 388 | 38.5% | 29.0% | 53.7% | 35.8% | 34.2% |
| I don’t know | 23 | 2.3% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
Part of this could be that the Zoomers did not live through most, if any, of the Global War on Terror. We may need to educate the youth about just how futile years of foreign intervention turned out to be so as to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. Those who remember a time before the Patriot Act should remind the youth that the “new normal” of government eavesdropping and excessive airport security would have once been unthinkably abnormal. September 11 and its fallout were arguably the first of “current things” which were used as a pretext to demand a “new normal.”
II. America’s Greatest Friend and Ally?
We asked respondents how they see the US’ relationship with Israel. Respondents could answer a major net positive, a minor net positive, about equally positive and negative, a minor net negative, a major net negative, or I don’t know.
More respondents see the US’ relationship as a major or minor net positive at 40.7% compared to those who see it as a major or minor net negative at 23.3%. Republicans were the most likely to see it as a net positive, with 55.2% of Republicans seeing it as being a major or minor net positive.
| Q. 9 For the United States, the United States’ relationship with Israel is: | ||||||
| Results by Party | Another | |||||
| # | % | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Party | |
| A major net positive | 211 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 15.5% | 35.1% | 13.8% |
| A minor net positive | 200 | 19.8% | 21.4% | 19.3% | 20.1% | 6.9% |
| About equally positive and negative | 279 | 27.7% | 31.1% | 28.7% | 23.5% | 27.6% |
| A minor net negative | 124 | 12.3% | 14.9% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% |
| A major net negative | 111 | 11.0% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 6.7% | 34.5% |
| I don’t know | 83 | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 10.3% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
There was a major decrease in seeing the US’ relationship as a net positive in the 30-44 age cohort, followed by a slight rebound in the 30-44 age cohort. Perhaps this can be explained by the fact that those aged 30-44 experienced firsthand the failures of the Global War on Terror. This emphasizes the need to educate the youth about the Global War on Terror and its legacy, since it has passed from being a current event into history.
| Q. 9 For the United States, the United States’ relationship with Israel is: | ||||||
| Results by Age | ||||||
| # | % | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | over 65 | |
| A major net positive | 211 | 20.9% | 15.3% | 12.0% | 25.4% | 28.0% |
| A minor net positive | 200 | 19.8% | 19.1% | 19.8% | 19.6% | 21.0% |
| About equally positive and negative | 279 | 27.7% | 25.1% | 28.1% | 29.3% | 26.7% |
| A minor net negative | 124 | 12.3% | 19.1% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 10.2% |
| A major net negative | 111 | 11.0% | 9.3% | 18.2% | 8.1% | 9.3% |
| I don’t know | 83 | 8.2% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 4.9% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
Among Republicans aged 18-29, 47.8% thought that the US’ relationship with Israel was a major or minor net positive, compared to 40.7% of all respondents.
However, the 47.8% of Republicans aged 18-29 who see the US’ relationship as a net positive was also lower than the 55.2% of total Republican respondents who see the US’ relationship as a net positive. Additionally, 21.7% of Republicans aged 18-29 see it as a major or minor net negative, compared to 15.2% of all Republican respondents.
| Q. 9 For the United States, the United States’ relationship with Israel is: | ||||||
| Republicans by age | # | % | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | over 65 |
| A major net positive | 115 | 35.1% | 21.7% | 23.6% | 36.2% | 53.6% |
| A minor net positive | 66 | 20.1% | 26.1% | 19.4% | 19.9% | 17.4% |
| About equally positive and negative | 77 | 23.5% | 21.7% | 26.4% | 24.8% | 18.8% |
| A minor net negative | 28 | 8.5% | 15.2% | 12.5% | 6.4% | 4.4% |
| A major net negative | 22 | 6.7% | 6.5% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| I don’t know | 20 | 6.1% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 2.9% |
| Total | 328 | |||||
The Republican aged 18-29 subgroup is significantly smaller than just those who are just aged 18-29 or just Republican, and thus comes with a higher margin of error. However, our numbers are apparently replicating the findings of polls conducted by the Anti-Defamation League and others which Jonathan Greenblatt referenced in a leaked audio recording, in which he remarked that the issue of declining support for Israel was not an issue of Left versus Right, but old versus young.[4]
Many Americans who support Israel claim that it is “our greatest friend and ally,” yet will oftentimes have trouble articulating in concrete terms why that is. We therefore asked respondents if they could think of a concrete example of Israel aiding American interests off the top of their heads.
| Q. 10 Off the top of your head, can you think of a concrete example of Israel aiding American interests? | ||||||
| Results by Party | % | % | % | % | ||
| # | % | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another | |
| Yes | 233 | 23.1% | 19.1% | 19.3% | 30.2% | 31.0% |
| No | 775 | 76.9% | 80.9% | 80.7% | 69.8% | 69.0% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
| Results by Age | ||||||
| % | % | % | % | |||
| # | % | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | over 65 | |
| Yes | 233 | 23.1% | 27.3% | 16.9% | 22.3% | 27.6% |
| No | 775 | 76.9% | 72.7% | 83.1% | 77.7% | 72.4% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
| REPUBS BY AGE | # | % | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | over 65 |
| Yes | 99 | 30.2% | 37.0% | 18.1% | 30.5% | 37.7% |
| No | 229 | 69.8% | 63.0% | 81.9% | 69.5% | 62.3% |
| Total | 328 | |||||
Only 23.1% of all respondents claimed they could think of a concrete example of Israel aiding American interests. This number was 30.2% for all Republican respondents, 27.3% among respondents aged 18-29, and 37.0% among Republican respondents aged 18-29.
Interestingly, the 30-44 age cohort led the way again in skepticism toward Israel, with only 16.9% of all respondents aged 30-44 saying yes, and 18.1% among Republicans aged 30-44.
This suggests that while support for Israel is declining among the youth, that decline could be even further hastened by educating them about the reality of the Global War on Terror, and particularly about how Israel was conspicuously absent from participating in that conflict. This is important because the claim that Israel is an important ally of the US is often used as a justification for costly and misguided foreign interventions in the Middle East.
We next asked a similar question about whether respondents could think of a concrete example of Israel hurting American interests.
| Q. 11 Off the top of your head, can you think of a concrete example of Israel hurting American interests? | ||||||
| Results by Party | % | % | % | % | ||
| # | % | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another | |
| Yes | 295 | 29.3% | 31.1% | 34.2% | 20.4% | 51.7% |
| No | 713 | 70.7% | 68.9% | 65.8% | 79.6% | 48.3% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
| Results by Age | ||||||
| % | % | % | % | |||
| # | % | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | over 65 | |
| Yes | 295 | 29.3% | 32.8% | 33.1% | 25.1% | 28.9% |
| No | 713 | 70.7% | 67.2% | 66.9% | 74.9% | 71.1% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
| REPUBS BY AGE | # | % | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | over 65 |
| Yes | 67 | 20.4% | 21.7% | 25.0% | 21.3% | 13.0% |
| No | 261 | 79.6% | 78.3% | 75.0% | 78.7% | 87.0% |
| Total | 328 | |||||
The results were similar to the previous question. 29.3% of all respondents replied yes, compared to 20.4% of Republicans, 33.1% of respondents aged 30-44, and 25% of Republicans aged 30-44.
While skeptics and critics of Israel may be familiar with the bombing of the USS Liberty, the Lavon Affair, prior Israeli knowledge of the September 11 attacks, that Jeffrey Epstein was a Mossad agent, and that the Israeli lobby is particularly robust, the general public is not. This suggests that declining support for Israel among the youth could be further hastened by educating the public about how Israel has concretely hurt US interests over the years. This would reduce the danger of continued foreign interventions in the Middle East.
III. Intervention in the Gaza War
We polled respondents about the ongoing Gaza conflict, which we defined using neutral language from Wikipedia as follows: “An armed conflict between Israel and Hamas-led Palestinian militant groups has been taking place chiefly in and around the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023. On that day, militant groups launched a surprise attack on southern Israel from the Gaza Strip, marking the start of the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War in 1973.”
We asked respondents: “Which of the following best describes your stance on the United States providing economic, material and diplomatic aid to Israel in the Israel-Hamas War?” Respondents could answer strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose, and I don’t know.
| Q. 12 Which of the following best describes your stance on the United States providing economic, material and diplomatic aid to Israel in the Israel-Hamas War? | ||||||
| Results by Party | % | % | % | % | ||
| # | % | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another | |
| Strongly support | 216 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 15.8% | 37.8% | 10.3% |
| Somewhat support | 305 | 30.3% | 34.0% | 30.1% | 27.4% | 24.1% |
| Somewhat oppose | 197 | 19.5% | 25.6% | 19.3% | 14.3% | 17.2% |
| Strongly oppose | 210 | 20.8% | 19.7% | 24.0% | 16.5% | 44.8% |
| I don’t know | 80 | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
| Results by Age | ||||||
| % | % | % | % | |||
| # | % | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | over 65 | |
| Strongly support | 216 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 27.9% | 27.6% |
| Somewhat support | 305 | 30.3% | 24.6% | 27.3% | 28.2% | 41.3% |
| Somewhat oppose | 197 | 19.5% | 19.7% | 21.1% | 21.5% | 14.7% |
| Strongly oppose | 210 | 20.8% | 30.1% | 29.8% | 15.6% | 12.0% |
| I don’t know | 80 | 7.9% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 4.4% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
| REPUBS BY AGE | # | % | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | over 65 |
| Strongly support | 124 | 37.8% | 30.4% | 26.4% | 40.4% | 49.3% |
| Somewhat support | 90 | 27.4% | 21.7% | 29.2% | 25.5% | 33.3% |
| Somewhat oppose | 47 | 14.3% | 19.6% | 13.9% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
| Strongly oppose | 54 | 16.5% | 15.2% | 27.8% | 15.6% | 7.2% |
| I don’t know | 13 | 4.0% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Total | 328 | |||||
A slim margin of all respondents at 51.7% strongly or somewhat support providing economic, material, and diplomatic aid to Israel in the current conflict. That number is 65.2% of all Republican respondents, 37.7% among all respondents aged 18-29, 39.7% among all respondents aged 30-44, 52.1% among Republicans aged 18-29, and 55.6% of Republicans aged 30-44.
49.8% of all respondents aged 18-29 somewhat or strongly oppose providing such aid to Israel in the current conflict, as do 50.9% of all respondents aged 30-44.
We also asked respondents: “Which of the following best describes your stance on United States directly intervening on behalf of Israel in the Israel-Hamas War, up to and including troops on the ground and airstrikes?”
| Q. 17 Which of the following best describes your stance on United States directly intervening on behalf of Israel in the Israel-Hamas War, up to and including troops on the ground and airstrikes? | ||||||
| Results by Party | % | % | % | % | ||
| # | % | Democrats | Independents | Republicans | Another | |
| Strongly support | 79 | 7.8% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 14.6% | 6.9% |
| Somewhat support | 155 | 15.4% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 20.4% | 6.9% |
| Somewhat oppose | 275 | 27.3% | 29.4% | 25.4% | 28.4% | 13.8% |
| Strongly oppose | 414 | 41.1% | 47.2% | 46.2% | 28.0% | 62.1% |
| I don’t know | 85 | 8.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.3% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
| Results by Age | ||||||
| % | % | % | % | |||
| # | % | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | over 65 | |
| Strongly support | 79 | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 12.0% | 6.2% |
| Somewhat support | 155 | 15.4% | 15.3% | 12.4% | 15.9% | 17.8% |
| Somewhat oppose | 275 | 27.3% | 26.2% | 25.6% | 29.9% | 25.8% |
| Strongly oppose | 414 | 41.1% | 38.3% | 46.3% | 35.8% | 46.2% |
| I don’t know | 85 | 8.4% | 14.8% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% |
| Total | 1008 | |||||
| REPUBS BY AGE | # | % | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | over 65 |
| Strongly support | 48 | 14.6% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 17.7% | 11.6% |
| Somewhat support | 67 | 20.4% | 19.6% | 18.1% | 19.1% | 26.1% |
| Somewhat oppose | 93 | 28.4% | 39.1% | 22.2% | 29.1% | 26.1% |
| Strongly oppose | 92 | 28.0% | 15.2% | 36.1% | 24.8% | 34.8% |
| I don’t know | 28 | 8.5% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 1.4% |
| Total | 328 | |||||
The 23.2% of all respondents who at least somewhat support direct intervention with airstrikes or boots on the ground are decisively outnumbered by the 68.4% who at least somewhat oppose such intervention.
Even among Republican respondents, the 35% who support direct intervention are outnumbered by the 56.4% who oppose it. 20.8% of respondents aged 18-29 support direct intervention, while 64.5% oppose it. 17.4% of respondents aged 30-44 support direct intervention, while 71.9% oppose it, which continues the theme of those who experienced the Global War on Terror first-hand being the most reluctant to resume foreign adventurism. 32.6% of Republicans aged 18-29 support direct intervention, while 54.3% oppose it.
IV. Bomb the Third World, Import the Third World?
You can buy Greg Johnson’s Against Imperialism here.
A common neoconservative talking point is that if we don’t fight the terrorists over there, we will have to fight them here. But if we didn’t let them in, we wouldn’t have to fight them anywhere at all.
We asked respondents if they thought that the risk of terrorist attacks on the US homeland would increase due to US support for Israel in the current conflict. 14.4% of respondents think that US support for Israel in the current conflict will greatly increase the risk of terrorist attacks on the US homeland, while 47.7% replied that it would somewhat increase, and 31.9% said that it would stay about the same. Almost nobody thought that it would decrease the likelihood of terrorist attacks.
Republicans were most likely to think that US support for Israel would at least somewhat increase the risk of terrorist attacks, followed by Independents, with Democrats being the least likely to see a heightened risk of terrorist attacks, albeit still with a majority.
| Q. 8 Due the United States’ support of Israel, do you think that the risk of terrorist attacks in the United States homeland will: | ||||||
| Results by Party | ||||||
