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A recent poll by the Homeland Institute of white American voters found that support for a national divorce was still relatively low. Only 25.4% of all respondents and 32.2% of Republican respondents agreed at least a little with the concept of a national divorce.

Part of this was undoubtedly because while respondents were pessimistic about partisan gridlock, political violence, and polarization, they were also pessimistic about whether a national divorce would ameliorate these issues. These findings were buttressed by an Axios poll (see section 14) which also found that respondents were pessimistic about whether a national divorce would ameliorate a number of other issues.

But what if relatively low support for a national divorce can also be explained in part by an inability to envision creative solutions?

The Homeland Institute is therefore launching a series of case studies called New Nations, in which we will envision in concrete terms what several states or collections of states would look like as their own independent nations. We hope this will spark creative thinking and dispel arguments that secession is impractical.

We will begin with Texas, as they already have a robust independence movement: TEXIT.

Texas was already an independent country between 1836 and 1846.

What would the Republic of Texas look like?

Texas is 268,596 square miles in size, with a population of 30.5 million and a gross domestic product of $2.356 trillion. In a ranking of 195 recognized sovereign states, an independent Texas would rank:

After Texas declares independence, the United States would still rank at fourth in size, third in population, and even first in GDP despite losing 9.2% of its GDP.

There is the issue of how Texas’ departure would affect the balance of power in the electoral college and Congress. Texas currently has 40 out of 538 winner-take-all electoral college votes that are reliably Republican. Texas provides two reliably Republican senators. Of Texas’ 38 congressional representatives, 25 are currently Republican and 13 are Democrats.

Losing Texas would undeniably be a huge blow to conservatives across America. But as will be discussed latter, changing demographics would mean that Republicans wouldn’t just lose 40 Electoral College votes sooner or later, they would have to contend with those 40 votes flipping to the Democrats. Losing Texas in the Electoral College would thereby serve as a much-needed wake-up call about what would have inexorably happened had Texas stayed in the US. This would highlight the grave political implications of replacement migration, and perhaps encourage other states to break off alongside Texas.

Texas’ already large GDP will grow after leaving the Union. For example, TEXIT cites a study claiming that excessive federal regulations have shrunk Texan paychecks by 75%. That’s a rather bold claim. But even studies with more modest claims show that ever-expanding federal regulations contribute toward the Texan poverty rate and income inequality. Freeing the Texan economy from the shackles of federal overregulation would undoubtedly increase Texas’ already large economy.

As of 2022, Texas had been the top exporting state for 21 years in a row. 93% of all exporters are small businesses, which means that Texas is not reliant on a few mega-corporations that could pull out in order to sabotage a national divorce. As of 2017, Texas was the fourth-largest exporting state of agricultural goods. Texas has the most farms of all the states in the US, both in terms of number and acreage, along with the most cattle. Texas also produces the most cotton. The Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport is the second-largest in the US and fourth largest in the world. Texas is likewise the top energy-producing state, and produces twice as much energy as Florida, which is in second place. Texas is the top producer of both crude oil and natural gas, accounting for 41% of national crude oil production and 25% of national natural gas in 2019, and its oil refineries represent 31% of national refining capacity. Texas will clearly be energy and food independent.

This leads into a possible weakness in an independent Texas, which is a reliance on importing fruit and vegetables. Man cannot live on carbohydrates and meat alone. Most of Texas’ fresh produce comes from Mexico — but Texas could easily transform this weakness into a strength. The US as a whole is reliant on imports of fresh produce, especially from Mexico, and 55% of US imports of fresh produce from Mexico passes through Texan ports of entry. Thus, any attempts to sanction or blockade Texas would force much of the Mexican produce headed for the eastern US to travel a more circuitous route by land or sea, thereby raising the price. Furthermore, 30% of Texas’ agricultural exports go to Mexico, so continuing trade regardless of whether Washington, DC approves of it is as much in Mexico’s best interests as it would be in Texas’.

Militarily, Texas has the potential not only to defend itself, but to be a regional power. 118,000 Texans were on active duty as of 2021 out of a total of 1.195 million in the US military, which represents 9.87% of the total. More importantly, 164,000 were on active duty in 2017 out of 1.3 million active duty troops, which represents 12.6%. Due to the ongoing recruitment crisis, which is mostly driven by political issues, the 2017 statistics are the most informative regarding Texas’ military potential. Texas also has 15 military bases.

TEXIT has signaled that they are open to a NATO-style military pact with the US. If Texas spends the NATO target of 2% its GDP on defense spending, they would have an annual defense budget of $32.78 billion. This would put Texas at 11th in the world for defense spending. Texas clearly has the warriors and dollars to defend itself, whether that be alongside the US or otherwise.

Demographically, Texas is 39.8% non-Hispanic white, 40.2% Hispanic, 12.8% black, and 6.1% Asian. Control over their own borders would allow Texas to stabilize their demographics. As of now, the federal government’s immigration policy could be better called an invasion policy. For example, the Biden administration has threatened to sue Texas if they try to prosecute people who illegally enter, and federal agents have cut Texan barbed wire to facilitate illegal crossings. Given racial voting preferences, Texas will be permanently transformed from a Republican stronghold into a Democrat one if they remain in the US. This would effectively disenfranchise millions of white and/or Republican voters, who never consented to and even vehemently oppose the federal policy of open borders.

If Texas remains in the US, they face a grim reality of poverty and invasion. The Republic of Texas, in contrast, would enjoy a free, bright, secure, and prosperous future as an independent nation.