This file contains research papers and government data published in 2022 on the effectiveness of the Covid vaccines.
First, to clarify what “vaccine effectiveness” means. This term has been used in 4 different ways:
Below, I’m going to write mostly about the vaccine’s ineffectiveness against Omicron infection, hence transmission. I accept the conventional wisdom that it is somewhat effective against Omicron hospitalization and death.
Vaccine effectiveness against infection is computed by comparing the Covid infection rate among unvaccinated people to the rate among the “fully” vaccinated (which could be 2, 3, 4, or in Japan 5 doses). It represents how much being vaccinated reduces your chance of catching Covid vs. the chance an unvaccinated person has. So, it is calculated as
If the vaccinated case rate is less than the unvaccinated case rate, then vaccine effectiveness is positive, and the vaccine prevents disease. If the vaccinated case rate is greater than the unvaccinated case rate, then vaccine effectiveness is negative, and the vaccine causes disease. For instance, if the vaccine is so bad that it triples your chance of getting infected, then the vaccine effectiveness would be (X – 3X) / X = -200%. One guess as to how effective the Covid vaccine is.
The only complication is that when comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, the populations have to be similar for the comparison to be valid. Typically, this means the same age, comorbidities, etc. All of the group comparisons I report below are at least the same age, if not also sex, race, health conditions, etc.
The following pages detail government reports and medical studies which show that the vaccines have been worse than useless against the dominant variant of Covid in 2022, Omicron. But this only applies to Omicron. The vaccines were probably somewhat effective against the earlier Wuhan and Delta variants. But Wuhan and Delta are extinct now. The only Covid variant circulating today is Omicron. Omicron subvariant BA.1 became dominant in December 2021 and Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 were common by late 2022. The latest subvariant of Omicron, XBB.1.5, is dominant today.
1. The UK Health Security Agency publishes weekly “COVID-19 Vaccine Surveillance Reports”, helpfully providing many statistics about the vaccinated and unvaccinated population of the UK. This includes their Covid case rates broken down by 10-year age brackets.
I don’t want to clutter this report any more than I have to with large tables of numbers, so I’m just going to pick one age bracket to report on. It doesn’t really matter which one I pick since all the age groups show similar levels of negative effectiveness. But I’ve chosen the youngest adult age group because there is a potential problem looking at the older age groups. The concern is that in the UK the elderly are about 90% “fully” vaccinated (which means they got 3 doses), 5% “partially” vaccinated (1 or 2 doses), and 5% unvaccinated, so you have to suspect that the 5% who remain unvaccinated are different in some important way from everyone else, which makes the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations not comparable. It’s better to compare younger people where there are large numbers of both vaccinated and unvaccinated. The youngest adult age group, ages 18 to 29, is only about 1/3 “fully” vaccinated, 1/3 “partially” vaccinated, and 1/3 unvaccinated, so the unvaccinated are probably pretty similar to the vaccinated.
Here is the vaccine’s effectiveness over time, comparing fully vaccinated to completely unvaccinated young people in all the weekly UK Vaccine Surveillance Reports of 2022:
| Date Range | Vaccine Effectiveness for ages 18-29 |
|---|---|
| Week ending 1/16/2022 | 10% |
| Week ending 1/23/2022 | -3% |
| Week ending 1/30/2022 | -30% |
| Week ending 2/6/2022 | -78% |
| Week ending 2/13/2022 | -120% |
| Week ending 2/20/2022 | -157% |
| Week ending 2/27/2022 | -184% |
| Week ending 3/6/2022 | -202% |
| Week ending 3/13/2022 | -216% |
| Week ending 3/20/2022 | -225% |
| Week ending 3/27/2022 | -231% |
That’s quite a trend.
To show that I haven’t just cherry-picked the worst age bracket, here are the rates of infection for the unvaccinated and fully vaccinated for all adult age groups, on 3/27/2022, the last date when these numbers were reported:
| Age Range | Cases per 100,000 among persons not vaccinated | Cases per 100,000 among persons vaccinated | Vaccine effectiveness with 3 doses |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | 941 | 3,118 | -231% |
| 30 to 39 | 1,085 | 4,324 | -299% |
| 40 to 49 | 955 | 3,957 | -314% |
| 50 to 59 | 779 | 3,303 | -324% |
| 60 to 69 | 572 | 2,814 | -392% |
| 70 to 79 | 532 | 2,161 | -306% |
| 80+ | 775 | 2,023 | -161% |
These results are catastrophic, not just for those who got the vaccine, but more importantly to the government, they are catastrophic for the narrative that the vaccine still works. So, starting on the week of 4/3/2022, the UKHSA Vaccine Surveillance Report stopped reporting any of these numbers, stating “From the week of 4/3/2022 onwards this section of the report will no longer be published.” They replaced it with a new section called “Consensus Vaccine Effectiveness Estimates” which “summarizes consensus estimates of vaccine effectiveness … that have been reached by the UK Vaccine Effectiveness Expert Panel.” Of course, they don’t say how these Experts reached their Consensus. But we don’t need to know. We just need to trust the Experts.
The new Vaccine Surveillance Reports also switched from weekly to monthly and eliminated the separate age brackets. Here is their Expert Consensus on vaccine and booster effectiveness for all age groups combined:
| Date | Vaccine Effectiveness | Booster Effectiveness |
|---|---|---|
| Week ending 4/3/2022 | Insufficient data | Insufficient data |
| Month ending 5/12/2022 | 20% | Insufficient data |
| Month ending 6/16/2022 | 20% | 0% |
| Month ending 7/7/2022 | 20% | 0% |
| Month ending 8/4/2022 | 20% | 0% |
| Month ending 9/1/2022 | 20% | 0% |
| Month ending 10/6/2022 | 20% | 0% |
| Month ending 11/3/2022 | Insufficient data | 0% |
| Month ending 12/1/2022 | Insufficient data | 0% |
| Month ending 1/12/2023 | Insufficient data | 0% |
I’m going to go out on a limb here and assume that whenever they found negative effectiveness, they wrote “Insufficient data”. I’d also guess that the way they came up with positive effectiveness at all was that they computed effectiveness over the entire vaccination period. So, if the vaccine was 95% effective against the Wuhan variant in 2020, 50% effective against Delta in 2021, and -100% effective against Omicron in 2022, they could say the average effectiveness overall was + 20%.
On 2/2/2023, the UKHSA Vaccine Surveillance Report stopped producing even the Expert Consensus table. They now simply state that the vaccine’s “effectiveness against infection with the Omicron variant is low and wanes rapidly”, which is quite an understatement, and don’t show any data or even Consensus Estimates on infections in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated people. In fact, there are no statistics on the unvaccinated at all anymore. As far as the UK is concerned, from now on there is no control group.
So, the Covid vaccine is ineffective, to put it mildly, against Omicron infections. But what about Omicron hospitalizations and deaths? The UK numbers show weak but positive vaccine effectiveness against hospitalizations and deaths. I will not dwell on these numbers since they are in line with the conventional wisdom that the vaccine protects against hospitalization and death, which I don’t dispute. The vaccine seems to be weakly effective against Omicron hospitalizations and deaths. They were probably strongly effective against hospitalization and death from the earlier Covid variants.
The last date the UK published actual numbers was on 3/27/2022. Here are the rates of hospitalization for the unvaccinated and fully vaccinated for all age groups on the last date these numbers were available:
| Age Range | Hosp per 100,000 among persons not vaccinated | Hosp per 100,000 among persons vaccinated | Vaccine effectiveness with 3 doses |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | 8.2 | 5.4 | + 34% |
| 30 to 39 | 7.4 | 6.8 | + 8% |
| 40 to 49 | 7.7 | 6.0 | + 22% |
| 50 to 59 | 12.9 | 9.0 | + 30% |
| 60 to 69 | 22.1 | 14.3 | + 35% |
| 70 to 79 | 58.8 | 36.6 | + 38% |
| 80+ | 123.5 | 117.9 | + 5% |
Average effectiveness is 25%.
Starting on 4/3/2022, the UK’s Vaccine Surveillance Report only reports their “Expert Consensus” on vaccine and booster effectiveness. Conveniently, effectiveness miraculously jumps that week from the figures above which ranged from 5% – 38% to 70% – 85%:
| Date | Vaccine Effectiveness | Booster Effectiveness |
|---|---|---|
| Week ending 4/3/2022 | 70% | 85% |
The last date they show the “Expert Consensus” is 1/12/2023:
| Date | Vaccine Effectiveness | Booster Effectiveness |
|---|---|---|
| Month ending 1/12/2023 | 50% | 60% |
Even their fake numbers are not great. And now they don’t even report fake numbers anymore.
The last date the UK published any actual numbers on mortality was 3/27/2022. Here are the death rates for the unvaccinated and the fully vaccinated for all age groups on the last date that these numbers were available:
| Age Range | Deaths per 100,000 among persons not vaccinated | Deaths per 100,000 among persons vaccinated | Vaccine effectiveness with 3 doses |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | 0.2 | 0.1 | + 50% |
| 30 to 39 | 0.5 | 0.4 | + 20% |
| 40 to 49 | 0.7 | 0.6 | + 14% |
| 50 to 59 | 2.4 | 1.2 | + 50% |
| 60 to 69 | 9.1 | 3.8 | + 58% |
| 70 to 79 | 30.3 | 13.4 | + 56% |
| 80+ | 121.8 | 84.4 | + 31% |
Average effectiveness against death from Covid for these 7 age groups is 40%. At least these numbers are positive.
Starting on 4/3/2022, the UK’s Vaccine Surveillance Report only shows their “Expert Consensus” on vaccine and booster effectiveness against mortality:
| Date | Vaccine Effectiveness | Booster Effectiveness |
|---|---|---|
| Week ending 4/3/2022 | Insufficient data | Insufficient data |
The last date they report the “Expert Consensus” is 1/12/2023:
| Date | Vaccine Effectiveness | Booster Effectiveness |
|---|---|---|
| Month ending 1/12/2023 | 50% | 60% |
Again: Fake numbers. Not great. No longer reported.
I noticed another interesting statistic in the UK reports – Covid antibody seroprevalence. Great Britain tests donations to its blood supply for S and N antibodies to Covid. People get S-only antibodies by getting the Spike protein from the vaccine and developing vaccine-induced immunity to it. They get both S and N antibodies from being infected and developing natural immunity to the Covid Spike and Nucleocapsid proteins. Blood donors tend to be slightly healthier than the general public, but the Health Security Agency considers this effect small, so they believe the blood supply seroprevalence mirrors the condition of the entire adult population of the UK. This graph shows the rise in S and N antibodies in the UK blood supply from late 2020 to early 2023:
Consider these 3 points in time:
So, the worst of the Covid pandemic came not before but after the country had been fully vaccinated. The unvaccinated British population of 2020/2021 suffered far fewer cases of Covid than the vaccinated British population of 2021/2022. This is consistent with the other evidence presented here that being unvaccinated is protective and getting vaccinated makes you vulnerable to infection by Omicron.
There is similar data for the US at https://covid19serohub.nih.gov/ but it’s less straightforward to use. My interpretation of that data is that the following events occurred in 2021 and 2022 in the US:
Not to beat a dead horse, but in both the UK and the US:
First, the Spike antibodies – the very antibodies that are supposed to be so effective at protecting us from Covid that people were willing to take Spike-protein-producing mRNA vaccines to get them – went up to virtually 100% of the population.
Then, after everyone had acquired the precious Spike antibodies, showing that they were now “immune”, the number of infections exploded and everyone in the country caught Omicron.
That’s not the way vaccines or immunity is supposed to work.
2. Public Health Scotland publishes a weekly “COVID-19 Statistical Report” covering the country of Scotland. They provide Covid statistics, including case, hospitalization, and death rates for the unvaccinated and vaccinated population. In 2020 and 2021, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were lower among the vaccinated, as everyone expected. But ever since Omicron in 2022, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have all been higher among the vaccinated.
Public Health Scotland does not break down the results by age group like the UK did, but they do report all data age-standardized, so the unvaccinated and vaccinated results are supposed to be comparable. Here are the age-standardized Covid case rates for all the weeks of 2022 in which they reported these numbers:
| Date Range | Case rate per 100,000 among unvaccinated | Case rate per 100,000 among 2-dose vaccinated | Vaccine effectiveness |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week ending 1/7/2022 | 1,232 | 2,688 | -118% |
| Week ending 1/14/2022 | 564 | 961 | -70% |
| Week ending 1/21/2022 | 439 | 618 | -41% |
| Week ending 1/28/2022 | 382 | 570 | -49% |
| Week ending 2/4/2022 | 394 | 526 | -34% |
| Week ending 2/11/2022 | 341 | 550 | -61% |
If that wasn’t bad enough, these are the age-standardized Covid hospitalization rates in 2022:
| Date Range | Hosp rate per 100,000 among unvaccinated | Hosp rate per 100,000 among 2-dose vaccinated | Vaccine effectiveness |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week ending 1/7/2022 | 47 | 65 | -38% |
| Week ending 1/14/2022 | 37 | 55 | -49% |
| Week ending 1/21/2022 | 32 | 38 | -19% |
| Week ending 1/28/2022 | 30 | 34 | -13% |
| Week ending 2/4/2022 | 32 | 25 | + 22% |
| Week ending 2/11/2022 | 15 | 27 | -80% |
Even worse, here are the age-standardized Covid death rates:
| Date Range | Death rate per 100,000 among unvaccinated | Death rate per 100,000 among 2-dose vaccinated | Vaccine effectiveness |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week ending 1/7/2022 | 6 | 7 | -17% |
| Week ending 1/14/2022 | 12 | 14 | -17% |
| Week ending 1/21/2022 | 7 | 16 | -129% |
| Week ending 1/28/2022 | 11 | 15 | -36% |
| Week ending 2/4/2022 | 11 | 12 | -9% |
| Week ending 2/11/2022 | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Starting on 2/18/2022, Public Health Scotland stopped publishing any of these numbers. They explain: “As PHS continues to seek to provide the most accurate information available to best support the response to the pandemic, COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, and deaths by vaccination status will no longer be reported.”
There are several other European governments which report negative vaccine effectiveness for Covid hospitalizations and deaths. However, I’m going to ignore them. The majority of data sources show that the vaccine reduces hospitalizations and deaths. I believe this is true, so I won’t belabor the few examples that find the opposite.
However effective the vaccines may be against severe illness and death, the evidence for their negative effectiveness against infection and transmission is strong. The vaccines probably were effective against the Wuhan and Delta variants of Covid. But they are anti-effective against Omicron. These vaccines’ one job was to end the pandemic by preventing infection and transmission. They haven’t just failed. The 2021 vaccines spread the pandemic to the entire population in 2022.
3. Swedish researchers studied all Covid infections in the entire country in a report at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9782222/ . They obtained the medical history of every person in Sweden, data that is generally not publicly available. The study period started when vaccinations began in December 2020 and lasted until January 2022 during the Omicron wave. It was done before the widespread use of boosters, so their results are for 2 doses of vaccine.
The researchers calculate vaccine effectiveness against Covid infection and find that it is high for the first 4 months after vaccination, then negative after that. But they note the great difference between the vaccine’s effectiveness against Delta as opposed to Omicron. Effectiveness against Delta remains close to 85% for the entire period of their study. Effectiveness against Omicron begins at 75% but falls sharply after that, with no end to the decline in sight. Here is the paper’s calculation of vaccine effectiveness against Omicron over time:
| Time after receiving 2 doses | Vaccine effectiveness |
|---|---|
| Week 1 | 75% |
| Week 2 | 45% |
| Week 3 | 44% |
| Week 4 | 43% |
| Week 5-6 | 31% |
| Week 7-8 | 18% |
| Week 9-10 | 6% |
| Week 11-13 | 11% |
| Week 14-17 | -3% |
| Week 18-21 | -19% |
| Week 22-25 | -30% |
| Week 26-29 | -43% |
| Week 30-33 | -34% |
| Week 34-37 | -53% |
| Week 38-41 | -52% |
| Week 42-45 | -51% |
| Week 46-49 | -65% |
| Week 50-53 | -96% |
Now that’s a consistent trend.
Here is how they delicately describe the vaccine’s extremely negative effectiveness after 14 weeks:
“There was a large difference in VE [Vaccine Effectiveness] against infection before and after the emergence of Omicron. VE was above 85% before Omicron in most time intervals, whereas VE was lower and decreased rapidly during the Omicron period and two doses of the vaccine showed no protection against infection by week 14.”
“No protection” indeed.
4. In a study of Covid reinfections at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9350711/ , medical researchers monitored the health data of every person in Iceland who had caught Covid in 2020 or 2021 and checked on whether they caught Omicron in 2022. About 10% of people who had been infected during the Wuhan and Delta waves became reinfected during the Omicron wave. The Omicron wave was, of course, after the vaccines. They found that more doses of the vaccine made you more likely to get reinfected. The difference in reinfections between 2+ doses and 1- doses was large and statistically significant. Vaccinated people get more Omicron reinfections.
They describe their results: “The probability of reinfection … was higher among persons who had received 2 or more doses compared with 1 dose or less of vaccine.”
There are actually two conclusions to draw from this study:
5. Moderna did a follow-up study of its own vaccine using the medical history of more than 100,000 Kaiser Permanente patients who had received the Moderna vaccine. It is available online at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.30.22280573v1.full.pdf . Their study covered the worst period of the Omicron wave, the first 6 months of 2022. I have to commend Moderna for the honesty of this work. They forthrightly admit that the effectiveness of their vaccine “disappears” after a few months, although I would use a stronger word than “disappear”. Vaccine effectiveness was generally positive for 5 months after receiving the vaccine, then negative after that. And instead of spewing the usual pap about how this just means you need to get your boosters, they also report that boosted people are more likely to contract Omicron than those who got just 2 shots. Bravo, Moderna!
Of course, they used every statistical trick available to generate more positive results. They tried adjusting their vaccine effectiveness calculations for every confounder they could find: “We identified potential confounders … includ[ing] body mass index, smoking, Charlson comorbidity score, frailty index, chronic diseases, immunocompromised status, autoimmune conditions, healthcare visits (outpatient, virtual, ED, and inpatient), preventive care (other vaccinations, screenings, and wellness visits), history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and history of SARS-CoV-2 molecular tests.” They ended up adjusting their vaccine effectiveness results “for age, sex, race/ethnicity, month of specimen collection, history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, history of SARS-CoV-2 molecular test, number of outpatient and virtual visits, medical center area, and time between second dose and specimen collection date.” And yet nothing they did could turn the effectiveness of their vaccine positive 5 months after injection.
Here are Moderna’s own fully-adjusted calculations of the effectiveness of 3 doses after 5 months compared to being unvaccinated, broken down by Omicron subvariant:
| Subvariant | Time since 3rd dose | Vaccine effectiveness |
|---|---|---|
| Omicron BA.1 | > 150 days | 55% |
| Omicron BA.2 | > 150 days | -25% |
| Omicron BA.4 | > 150 days | -16% |
| Omicron BA.5 | > 150 days | -18% |
And here is how well 3 doses worked compared to 2 doses:
| Subvariant | Time since 3rd dose | Vaccine effectiveness of 3 doses compared to 2 doses |
|---|---|---|
| Omicron BA.1 | > 150 days | 50% |
| Omicron BA.2 | > 150 days | -14% |
| Omicron BA.4 | > 150 days | -13% |
| Omicron BA.5 | > 150 days | -17% |
The bottom line is that Moderna says their vaccine worked well against Wuhan, Delta, and the first subvariant of Omicron called BA.1. It does not work against any of the more recent subvariants of Omicron, including today’s dominant BA.4 and BA.5.
3 doses of Moderna became ineffective within 150 days after being given. And 4 doses became ineffective even faster: “The 4-dose VE [Vaccine Effectiveness] against infection … disappear[ed] beyond 90 days for all subvariants.”
This is the best spin they could put on these results: “In conclusion, our data indicate that the 3-dose or 4-dose effectiveness of mRNA-1273 against infection with Omicron subvariants is moderate and short-lived.”
Moderate for 5 months, counterproductive after 5 months.
6. The Cleveland Clinic did a study of its 50,000 employees, available at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full.pdf . It tracked the employees’ vaccination status as of September 2022 and whether they subsequently caught Omicron, mostly subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, between September and December 2022. They found the number of Omicron infections was proportional to the number of vaccine doses they had previously received: 4-dose recipients caught Omicron the most, followed by 3-dose recipients, then 2-dose recipients, then 1-dose recipients. Unvaccinated employees caught Omicron the least. The effect was monotonic, substantial, and strongly statistically significant. They didn’t find that the vaccine- and non-vaccine-taking groups were otherwise different in health, since to remain working at the Cleveland Clinic, they all had to be fairly healthy.
Employees who had received 3 or 4 vaccine doses were 3 times more likely to catch Covid afterwards than unvaccinated employees (a vaccine effectiveness of -200%). All of these results were adjusted for age, gender, and whether the person had previously had Covid. The Cleveland Clinic was surprised by this outcome: “The association of increased risk of COVID-19 with higher numbers of prior vaccine doses in our study was unexpected.”
Quoting from the study:
“The risk of COVID-19 varied by the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses previously received. The higher the number of vaccines previously received, the higher the risk of contracting COVID-19.”
“The multivariable analyses also found that … the greater the number of vaccine doses previously received, the higher the risk of COVID-19.”
As they conclude:
“We still have a lot to learn about protection from COVID-19 vaccination, and in addition to a vaccine’s effectiveness it is important to examine whether multiple vaccine doses given over time may not be having the beneficial effect that is generally assumed.”
May not be.
7. How deadly is Covid?
In an earlier section of this report, I showed seroprevalence data from the UK and US. Health authorities test the blood supply and do other surveillance to monitor antibody levels in the population. In the UK, 85% of tested blood now contains antibodies to the Covid Nucleocapsid protein, and in the US, it is 80%. Since you can only get Nucleocapsid antibodies from Covid infection, not from Covid vaccination, this data proves that 80% of the US population has contracted Covid at least once. That is 350M * 0.80 = 280M Americans.
Let’s compare this to the official US death count from Covid of 1.2M Americans. Some people think the Covid death count should actually be lower than this because many people died “with Covid” not “from Covid”, and some people think it should be higher because excess deaths are continuing today, but the official count of 1.2M is probably close to the correct number. This is corroborated by the fact that according to the CDC the US had 500K and 600K extra deaths from all causes in 2020 and 2021. If 100% of those deaths were from Covid, which the CDC doesn’t claim, then the total would be 1.1M Covid deaths. There were fewer excess deaths in 2022 and most of those were not from Covid. (The mystery of what caused the excess deaths in 2022 is an issue I will address in my other report – on vaccine safety.) The point is, there is no large reservoir of undiagnosed Covid deaths. The official Covid death count of 1.2M is probably quite accurate.
Combining these two numbers – 1.2M deaths out of 280M individuals infected – makes the individual fatality rate:
But with vaccinated people catching Omicron multiple times, the number of Covid cases is higher than the number of individuals who caught Covid. Let’s say that half of the people who had Covid caught it once and half caught it twice. Then the number of Covid cases would be 280M * 1.5 = 420M. That is, there were 280M individuals who caught Covid but there were 420M total cases of Covid because some people caught it more than once.
Combining those two numbers – 1.2M deaths out of 420M cases of Covid – makes the case fatality rate:
This is consistent with other evidence which suggests that the Wuhan variant had a fatality rate of about 0.8%, Delta 0.5%, and Omicron 0.1%, for an average Covid mortality rate of 0.3% over the past 3 years. As even Bill Gates has said, unless you’re elderly, Omicron is the flu – meaning harmless. Of course, if you’re elderly, Omicron is the flu too – meaning there is a small chance it could be serious.
So, any analysis of Covid dangers that uses a historical Covid case fatality rate of greater than 0.3% or a current Omicron case fatality rate of greater than 0.1% is wrong.
Like SARS-CoV-2, the first SARS (now renamed SARS-CoV-1) was a bat coronavirus from China. In 2003, during the SARS outbreak, South Park did an episode about the disease. In it, every adult in South Park catches SARS. Randy Marsh, who is sick in bed, has a heart-to-heart talk with his son, Stan: “Son, I’ve got SARS. Soon everyone in town will have it. You need to understand that SARS has only a 98% survival rate. That means that, after this epidemic is over, there will only be 98% of our people left. I know this is hard to hear, but after those 2% of us are gone, you’re going to have to stay strong. I don’t know how you will carry on without us. But you must find a way.”
Now we know that SARS-CoV-2 is different. Today, the conversation would be, “Son, I’ve got SARS-CoV-2. Soon everyone in town will have it. You need to understand that SARS-CoV-2 has only a 99.7% survival rate. That means that, after this pandemic is over, there will only be 99.7% of our people left. I know this is hard to hear, but after those 0.3% of us are gone, you’re going to have to stay strong. I don’t know how you will carry on without us. But you must find a way.”
With Omicron, it would be 99.9%.
8. Conclusions.
Four claims were made about the vaccines when they were first introduced in late 2020:
The first 2 claims are obviously false. The last 2 claims are partly true. (They don’t prevent, but they may reduce.)
A vaccine’s effectiveness in reducing disease spread is the only public health justification for requiring people to take it. There are plenty of private reasons for taking a vaccine – depending on your particular health conditions, it might reduce your chance of getting seriously ill or of dying – but those are private not public benefits so the decision rightly belongs to the individual not the government. The only public health justification for forcing people to take vaccines against their will is to protect others by reducing the spread of the disease. With negative effectiveness, the Covid vaccines increase disease spread so there is now a public health reason for prohibiting the vaccines. I believe individuals should make their own choices on medical treatments. But if the government does decide to get involved, it should be prohibiting, not mandating, the Covid vaccines.
The vaccine clinical trials in 2020 reported that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were extraordinarily effective at preventing Covid infections. To quote the Pfizer clinical trial: “BNT162b2 [the Pfizer vaccine] conferred 95% protection against Covid-19.” To quote Moderna: “The mRNA-1273 [Moderna] vaccine showed 94.1% efficacy at preventing Covid-19 illness.” But now we know that the vaccines’ effectiveness is not only nowhere near that high, it is almost certainly negative. Vaccinated people catch Omicron more often than unvaccinated people do. So, how could vaccine effectiveness fall from 95% to -200% or whatever it is today? I can only think of 3 possibilities: 1) The vaccine manufacturers lied. 2) Vaccine effectiveness fell from 95% to -200% because the vaccine temporarily revs up the body’s immune system at the cost of damaging it permanently. This would explain why, no matter how many boosters you get, they always show positive effectiveness immediately and then negative effectiveness later. 3) The vaccines were 95% effective against the original version of Covid but are -200% effective against Omicron, a variant created by natural selection to spread in a world where billions of people have a defective immune response because they are protected only against the original Covid variant. This was the subject that I wrote about last year.
I still think #3 is the explanation. Vaccines don’t go from 95% to -200% effective unless the virus changes by adapting to the vaccine.
In spite of the Covid vaccines’ clear ineffectiveness, or even anti-effectiveness, against infection and spread, I sti
